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07 Oct 2023 | 07:03 AM UTC

Bangladesh: Political rallies likely nationwide through at least late October /update 7

Political protests likely in Bangladesh through at least late October. Tight security likely, clashes possible.

Warning
security
transportation
BGD

Event

Rallies by various political parties are likely nationwide until at least late October. Organizers are demanding political concessions and mobilizing grassroots-level support ahead of the upcoming general election in January 2024. As of Oct. 7, the ruling Awami League (AL) party and main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) have announced the following events:

  • Oct. 7: AL rally at Uttara Aviation Field to mark the inauguration of Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport's (DAC) third terminal.

  • Oct. 9: BNP nationwide rallies to call for the release of former prime minister and BNP chairperson Khaleda Zia.

  • Oct. 10: AL rally in the Mawa area of Munshiganj District, Dhaka Division, to mark the opening of the Padma Bridge Railway.

  • Oct 12: BNP student convention at an unspecified location in Dhaka.

  • Oct. 14: Nationwide hunger strike by BNP supporters.

  • Oct. 16: BNP youth rally at an unspecified location in Dhaka.

  • Oct. 18: BNP rally at an unspecified location in Dhaka.

  • Oct. 23: AL rally at Shapla Chattar in Motijheel District, Dhaka, to mark the inauguration of the Agargaon-Motijheel section of the metro rail.

  • Oct. 28: AL rally at an unspecified location in Chattogram to mark the opening of the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Tunnel.

BNP leaders have previously staged protest campaigns to demand the resignation of the current administration and that the general election occur under a neutral caretaker government. BNP activists have threatened to stage sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office.

Further gatherings by other political groups, such as the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, are highly likely over the coming days. Counterdemonstrations with little-to-no notice are possible during such rallies. Potential protest sites include political party offices, police stations, prominent government buildings, museums, public squares, sports grounds, mosques, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. While participation may vary by locale and sponsoring political group, previous events have attracted large crowds. Organizers could cancel or delay any planned actions at short notice due to organizational issues and/or law enforcement restrictions.

A heightened security presence and associated transport and business disruptions are likely around protests. Authorities may forcibly disperse overly disruptive crowds. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of rival political camps, are possible. Officials may conduct mass arrests and/or resort to using force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to security incidents.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Allow additional travel time near gathering sites. Plan accordingly for localized business disruptions. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Heed all official transport and security advisories.

Analysis