Bangladesh: Political rallies likely to continue nationwide through at least late October /update 10

Event

Rallies by various political parties are likely to continue across Bangladesh through at least late October. The political parties are continuing their series of ongoing protest campaigns to demand several political concessions and to mobilize grassroots-level support ahead of the upcoming general election in January 2024. As of Oct. 24, the ruling Awami League (AL) and the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders have announced the following events:

• Oct. 25: AL march to purportedly start from the Badda area of Dhaka.

• Oct. 28: AL rally at an unspecified location in Chattogram to mark the opening of the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Tunnel; Sheikh Hasina will attend the planned rally. Additionally, the BNP will hold a mass rally at their party headquarters in the Naya Paltan area of Dhaka with the potential for several million participants if well-attended. AL will also hold a gathering at Baitul Mukarram Mosque in Dhaka to counter BNP's mass rally.

• Oct. 29: Sheikh Hasina to address a public gathering in Dhaka's Motijheel area during a metro rail project inauguration.

• Oct. 31: AL march reportedly planned in Dhaka's Uttara area.

BNP leaders have previously staged protest campaigns to demand the resignation of the current administration and that the general election occur under a neutral caretaker government. BNP activists have threatened to stage sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office.

Further gatherings by the AL and BNP and other political groups, such as the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, are highly likely over the coming weeks. Counterdemonstrations with little-to-no notice are possible during such rallies. Potential gathering sites include political party offices, police stations, as well as prominent government buildings, museums, public squares, sports grounds, mosques, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. While participation will vary by locale and sponsoring political groups, previous events have attracted hundreds of thousands of participants. Organizers could cancel or delay any planned actions at short notice due to organizational issues and/or law enforcement restrictions.

A heightened security presence and associated transport and business disruptions are likely around all gatherings. Officials may conduct mass arrests and/or resort to using force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to security incidents. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of rival political camps, are possible.

Advice

Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Allow additional travel time near gathering sites. Plan accordingly for localized business disruptions. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Heed all official transport and security advisories.