Bangladesh: Political rallies likely to continue nationwide through at least mid-November /update 11

Various political parties are likely to continue their ongoing nationwide protest campaigns through at least mid-November to demand several political concessions and mobilize grassroots-level support ahead of the general election in January 2024. On Oct. 28, several parties will organize rival political rallies in Dhaka. The ruling Awami League (AL) will hold a gathering at the south gate of Baitul Mukarram Mosque. Meanwhile, the primary opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) plans to gather outside the party headquarters in the Naya Paltan area; however, officials had not granted legal permission for the planned gathering as of Oct. 25. Alternative potential BNP gathering sites include Golapbag Field and/or the Suhrawardy Udyan historical landmark. Moreover, BNP activists may gather at various locations, including the party headquarters, despite any legal restrictions that authorities may attempt to enforce. If well attended, the AL and BNP rallies may draw up to a few million participants on Oct. 28.

The Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, or Jamaat, party also plans to rally at Water Lily Square (Shapla Chottor) in Dhaka's Motijheel area on Oct. 28; however, authorities had denied the party permission to organize the gathering as of Oct. 25. Authorities will maintain an increased security presence in Dhaka by establishing checkpoints at various entry and exit points and other locations across the city and conducting enhanced checks on Oct. 28.

In Chattogram, the AL also reportedly plans to rally at an unspecified location to mark the opening of the Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Tunnel; Sheikh Hasina will attend the planned rally. Additionally, the Bangladesh Awami Jubo League (Jubo League), a youth wing of the AL, will hold various demonstrations through Nov. 16.

Further demonstrations, including some organized by other groups, are highly likely over the coming weeks. Counterdemonstrations may materialize with little-to-no notice during such rallies. Potential gathering sites include political party offices, police stations, prominent government buildings, museums, public squares, sports grounds, mosques, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. BNP leaders have previously staged protest campaigns to demand the resignation of the current administration and that the general election occur under a neutral caretaker government. BNP activists have threatened to stage sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office.

While participation will vary by locale and sponsoring political groups, previous events have attracted hundreds of thousands of participants. Organizers could cancel or delay any planned actions on short notice due to organizational issues and/or law enforcement restrictions. A heightened security presence and associated transport and business disruptions are likely around any such gatherings that materialize. Officials may conduct mass arrests and/or resort to using force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to security incidents. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of rival political camps, cannot be ruled out.