UK, Ireland, France: Storm Ciaran to bring adverse weather across parts of Ireland, France, and the UK through at least Nov. 3 /update 1

Adverse weather associated with Storm Ciaran is forecast to affect parts of Ireland, France, and the UK through at least Nov. 3. The worst of the severe weather is expected over Northern Ireland, Brittany, Wales, and southern England late Nov. 1 through Nov. 2. Rainfall totals of up to 4-6 cm (1.6-2.4 inches) are possible over higher ground in western parts of the UK, as well as winds gusting up to 129 kph (80 mph) along the south coast of England. About 3-5 cm (1.2-2.0 inches) of rain are possible in Finistere and Morbihan, France, over a six-hour period between Nov. 1-2, with heavy but less severe rains possible throughout western parts of that country Nov. 2. Finistere and Morbihan may see gusts up to 150 kph (93 mph) starting late Nov. 1, with similar heavy winds spreading across northwest France through the morning of Nov. 2.

Many parts of the UK and Ireland are still being affected by flooding caused by Storm Babet, which passed over the region Oct. 17-21. Hundreds of people were evacuated in parts of eastern Scotland and central England due to flooding. River levels remain high in many areas and hundreds of flood warnings and alerts remain in place across parts of the UK as of Oct. 31. Further adverse weather associated with Storm Ciaran will likely exacerbate the situation, even in areas where fairly moderate rainfall occurs.

As of Oct. 31, the UK Met Office and Meteo-France have issued the following warnings:

• UK: Orange rain warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Parts of southeastern Northern Ireland late Oct. 30-early Oct. 31.

• UK: Yellow rain warnings: Parts of southeastern England Oct. 30, parts of central and eastern Northern Ireland Oct. 30-mid Oct. 31, across Northern Ireland late Oct. 31-early Nov. 1, much of southern Wales and southern England late Nov. 1-late Nov. 2, and much of northeastern England early Nov. 2-early Nov. 3.

• UK: Yellow strong wind warnings: Much of western Wales and southern England late Nov. 1-late Nov. 2.

• France: Orange rain/flood warnings (third on a four-tier scale): Finistere and Morbihan, from approximately 21:00 Nov. 1 through at least Nov. 2.

• France: Orange wind warnings (third on a four-tier scale): Finistere, Cotes d'Armor, and Morbihan, from approximately 21:00 Nov. 1 through at least Nov. 2.

• France: Yellow rain/flood warnings (second on a four-tier scale): Manche, Cotes d'Armor, Ille-et-Vilaine, and Loire-Atlantique, from approximately 21:00 Nov. 1 through at least Nov. 2.

• France: Yellow wind warnings (second on a four-tier scale): Pas-de-Calais from 15:00-21:00 Nov. 1. Additionally, almost all of western France, starting near 21:00 Nov. 1 in the north and 23:00 Nov. 23 in the south, and through at least Nov. 2.

Authorities on Jersey have announced that Jersey Airport (JER) and Elizabeth Terminal will be closed Nov. 2, prompting disruptions to flight and ferry services to the island. Additionally, French authorities will close Brest Bretagne Airport (BES) from 17:00 Nov. 1 to 09:30 Nov. 2.

Met Eireann has not issued any weather warnings for Ireland as of Oct. 30; however, they have issued an advisory for heavy showers across the country Oct. 30-Nov. 1 with heavy downpours and strong winds late Nov. 1 through Nov. 2. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil. Further disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; further freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.