28 Nov 2023 | 07:05 PM UTC
Bangladesh: Political activists likely to continue ongoing series of protest campaigns through at least early December /update 5
Groups likely to continue ongoing transport blockades and related protest campaigns across Bangladesh through at least early December.
Several political organizations, including the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), will likely continue their ongoing series of nationwide transport blockades and related protest campaigns through at least early December. The purpose of the action is to demand several concessions, including the resignation of the incumbent government. Several demonstrations have been ongoing since Oct. 31, with the next 48-hour campaign slated to occur starting 06:00 Nov. 29; activists will observe a transport blockade and shutdown strike (hartal). Further blockades and other forms of protests remain highly likely as organizers have consistently renewed their 48-hour campaign at each scheduled expiration date. The transport blockades will almost certainly continue to cause widespread disruptions to various passenger and freight transport services in Bangladesh, especially in Chattogram and Dhaka. Inter-city vehicular movement between major urban centers is likely to remain limited during any planned action. Shipping disruptions are likely. Activists will likely block major roadways, rail tracks, and ferry docks. Some local businesses may temporarily suspend operations due to the non-availability of transport for workers.
Since Oct. 31, several hundred incidents of arson and vandalism have taken place, targeting vehicles and infrastructure in several regions, including in Banglamator, Bhola, Demra, Dhaka, Gazipur, Mirpur, Narayanganj, and Shyampur. As of Nov. 29, emerging reports indicate blockade-related violence has left at least six people killed and an unknown number of others wounded; isolated clashes between police and activists have erupted in some areas. Reports also indicate authorities have arrested thousands of opposition party activists. Further violence, including acts of arson and vandalism, remains possible. Clashes between police and activists, as well as members of opposing rival camps, including transport unions affiliated with the ruling Awami League (AL) party, cannot be ruled out.
Other protests, including sit-in protests, shutdown strikes, and counterdemonstrations, could occur at short notice. Potential gathering sites include political party offices, police stations, prominent government buildings, public squares, sports grounds, mosques, press clubs, transport hubs, and major thoroughfares. Participation will vary by location and sponsoring group, with larger gatherings potentially drawing tens of thousands of participants. Organizers could cancel or delay any planned actions at short notice due to organizational issues and/or law enforcement-related restrictions. Authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture around any such gatherings that materialize and may use force, including live ammunition and tear gas, to disperse and detain unruly participants.
Maintain increased caution if operating in Bangladesh due to the increased potential for violence. Confirm business appointments and transport reservations in advance. Seek alternative means of transport if necessary. Consider limiting travel in Dhaka; allow additional time to reach your destination in other areas. Monitor local media for updates on road conditions. Consider alternative shipping methods for time-sensitive freight. Do not attempt to navigate around roadblocks set up by protesters. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Maintain contact with your diplomatic mission. Heed all official transport and security advisories.
The current series of nationwide transport blockade campaigns in Bangladesh does not necessarily indicate an imminent escalation in regional security risks. Despite the prevalence of civil unrest incidents, the political environment most likely remains temporarily exacerbated by the upcoming general elections scheduled for January 7, 2024, with potential delays likely to occur in the election date. While the violence associated with the political campaigns has led to casualties and arrests, the overall security risk is influenced by the political context and may not necessarily translate into a broader escalation in regional instability.
