Bangladesh: Political rallies likely to continue nationwide through at least mid-December /update 12

Various political parties are likely to continue their ongoing nationwide protest campaigns through at least mid-December to demand the cancelation of the election. The Election Commission has announced that the general election will take place Jan. 7, with campaigning scheduled Dec. 18-Jan. 5. Activists from the opposition Islami Andolan Bangladesh party reportedly marched toward the election commission after the announcement Nov. 15 but were stopped by police. Several opposition parties have called for protests from Nov. 16 and will likely hold shutdown strikes over the coming days. The Bangladesh Labor Party has called for a nationwide shutdown strike Nov. 19-20.

Further demonstrations by political parties, including those organized by other groups, are highly likely over the coming weeks. Counterdemonstrations may materialize with little-to-no notice during such rallies. Potential gathering sites include the election commission, political party offices, police stations, prominent government buildings, museums, public squares, sports grounds, mosques, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. The main opposition Bangladesh National Party (BNP) and its partners continue to stage transport blockades and protest campaigns to demand the resignation of the current administration and that the general election occur under a neutral caretaker government. Related demonstrations have turned violent on some occasions, with incidents of arson and vandalism reported. BNP activists have also threatened to stage sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office.

While participation will vary by locale and sponsoring political groups, previous events have attracted hundreds of thousands of participants. The highest turnout is likely to occur in major urban centers like Chittagong and Dhaka. Organizers could cancel or delay any planned actions on short notice due to organizational issues and/or law enforcement restrictions. A heightened security presence and associated transport and business disruptions are likely around any such gatherings that materialize. Officials may conduct mass arrests and/or resort to using force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to security incidents. Clashes between police and activists, as well as between members of rival political camps, cannot be ruled out. Violence, including further acts of arson and vandalism, is possible.