Bangladesh: Authorities almost certain to maintain increased security presence nationwide through at least early January to facilitate general elections /update 16

Security deployments, protests, and associated disruptions are almost certain to persist nationwide through at least early January in the lead-up to, during, and following the general elections on Jan. 7. The government has deployed at least 500,000 security personnel across Bangladesh and will reportedly keep them in position through Jan. 10. Officials will particularly maintain a heightened security presence near polling centers. In the capital, law enforcement personnel have bolstered patrols, enhanced vehicular searches, and established checkpoints at various entry points of the city.

Several political parties continue to hold varying types of demonstrations to demand multiple concessions, including the resignation of the incumbent prime minister. The main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and other similar political groups will observe a 48-hour shutdown strike (hartal) 06:00 Jan. 6-06:00 Jan. 8. On. Jan. 7, the 12-Party Alliance will enforce a self-styled "curfew" during the election date. Such actions have also previously included transport blockades, which have caused widespread disruptions to various passenger and freight transport services in major urban centers, especially in Chattogram and Dhaka. During such events, inter-city vehicular movement and shipping services typically remain limited. Some local businesses may temporarily suspend operations due to the ongoing civil unrest. Activists have also previously threatened to stage sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office.

The ruling Awami League (AL) party could also stage rallies to mobilize grassroots-level support. Counterdemonstrations may materialize at short notice during any planned political events by both the ruling and opposition parties. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, including police stations and election commission offices, as well as public squares, political party offices, sports fields, mosques, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. While participation will probably vary by locale and sponsoring political groups, previous well-attended events have attracted hundreds of thousands of participants in major urban centers like Chittagong and Dhaka. Organizers may delay or cancel any planned action with little-to-no notice due to several reasons, including law enforcement-related restrictions.

Politically motivated violence has occurred on several occasions, encompassing isolated incidents of arson, intimidation, small-scale explosions, and vandalism. On Jan. 5, unidentified assailants used crude bombs to target a polling station in Bagmara Upazila, Rajshahi. That same day, unspecified perpetrators committed arson against a Benapole Express Train in Dhaka's Gopibag area, resulting in five fatalities. Further isolated security incidents, such as arson, small-scale explosions, and vandalism, are highly likely. Authorities may conduct mass arrests or resort to using force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to security incidents. Officials may implement enhanced security restrictions, including temporary public movement and/or telecommunication curbs, depending on the severity of the perceived threat. Clashes between police and activists, as well as among members of rival political camps, cannot be ruled out.