Bangladesh: Political gatherings almost certain to continue nationwide through at least mid-January following recent general elections /update 17

Political rallies are almost certain to persist across Bangladesh through at least mid-January, following the recent general elections held on Jan. 7. In recent days, activists have organized various demonstrations in Barisal, Dhaka, and other major urban centers. Incidents of poll-related violence, including arson, have been reported in various locations, particularly near train stations and voting centers. Some reports indicate that at least 15 people have been killed in recent months. As of Jan. 10, several opposition political parties, including the main Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Amar Bangladesh (AB) Party, have announced plans to continue their ongoing nationwide protest campaign following the election. Opposition parties have cited alleged irregularities in the electoral process.

Additional rallies of varying types, including shutdown strikes (hartals), are highly likely to continue over the coming weeks. Such actions have also previously included transport blockades, which have caused widespread disruptions to various passenger and freight transport services in major urban centers, especially in Chattogram and Dhaka. During such events, inter-city vehicular movement and shipping services typically remain limited. Some local businesses may temporarily suspend operations due to the ongoing civil unrest. Activists have also previously threatened to stage sit-in protests and blockades near prominent government buildings in Dhaka, including the Bangladesh Secretariat, Election Commission, and Prime Minister's Office.

The ruling Awami League (AL) party could also stage rallies to mobilize grassroots-level support. Counterdemonstrations may materialize at short notice during any planned political events by both the ruling and opposition parties. Potential gathering sites include prominent government buildings, including police stations and election commission offices, as well as public squares, political party offices, sports fields, mosques, press clubs, and major thoroughfares. While participation will probably vary by locale and sponsoring political groups, previous well-attended events have attracted hundreds of thousands of participants in major urban centers like Chittagong and Dhaka. Organizers may delay or cancel any planned action with little-to-no notice due to several reasons, including law enforcement-related restrictions.

Some sources suggest officials will reportedly keep at least 500,000 security personnel deployed nationwide through Jan. 10. In the capital, law enforcement personnel could continue bolstering patrols, enhancing vehicular searches, and establishing checkpoints at various entry points of the city over the coming weeks. Authorities may conduct mass arrests or resort to using force, including baton charges and tear gas, in response to security incidents. Officials may implement enhanced security restrictions, including temporary public movement and/or telecommunication curbs, depending on the severity of the perceived threat. Clashes between police and activists, as well as among members of rival political camps, cannot be ruled out.