Myanmar: Clashes in northern and western regions persist as of Jan. 9 after armed groups seize Kokang region /update 4

Significant ground, air transport, and land border transit disruptions continue as armed clashes in northern and western Myanmar persist as of Jan. 9. Resistance forces have effectively gained control of the Kokang region after seizing the capital of Laukkaing. The disruptions initially started after the military commenced ground and air operations in response to coordinated attacks by a coalition of anti-regime militant groups Oct. 27. The attacks primarily targeted military installations, military-controlled villages, security checkpoints, and major interstate highways. Lashio Airport (LSH), Loikaw Airport (LIW), and Kalaymyo Airport (KMV) remain closed indefinitely; it is unclear when normal operations will resume. Militants have reportedly occupied over 300 junta military bases and closed at least five official border crossings with China, with curfews active in Sittwe, Rakhine State, and multiple areas of northern Shan State. The conflict has displaced around 660,000 people; related air strikes have also caused casualties, including in border regions of China. Further clashes are likely across northern Shan, Kayin, Kayah, Mon, Chin, and Rakhine states, and Mandalay, upper Sagaing, and Magway regions, including Mandalay City and near border checkpoints with China, Thailand, India, and Bangladesh over the coming weeks.

Although the most intense fighting is concentrated in northern Shan State, related attacks by anti-junta groups have also occurred in the following areas:

• Mandalay Region: Mandalay City, Pyin Oo Lwin, and Madaya townships

• Sagaing Region: Loikaw, Kawlin, Tamu, Pinlebu, Tigyaing, and Monywa townships

• Magway Region: Gangaw and Sinbaungwe townships

• Kayin State: Kawkareik Township

• Kayah State: Mese, Demoso, Hpruso townships

• Mon State: Kyaikmaraw Township

• Chin State: Tedim, Matupi, Falam and Paletwa townships

• Rakhine State: Kyauktaw, Ponnagyun, Pauktaw, Rathedaung, Buthidaung, Maungdaw, and Minbya townships, and Mrauk-U city

• Bago State: Gyobingauk, Paungde, Yedashe townships

Other areas are also likely to see an intensification of similar attacks, likely prompting additional security force deployments. The tightest security is most likely at border and entry points to major cities, especially Mandalay. Further airstrikes in strongholds of armed groups are possible, posing a risk of collateral damage to civilian life and property. Multiple countries continue to advise against all or nonessential travel to Myanmar or affected regions like the northern areas of Mandalay Region and Shan State.

Authorities are imposing martial law in 59 townships nationwide, mainly in northern Shan State, until further notice; such movement restrictions and nonessential business closures are likely in other regions if clashes continue. Authorities have increased security personnel presence in Mandalay and are conducting vehicle inspections and random stop checks. An escalation of attacks by both military forces and anti-junta groups in Lashio has led to the reported evacuation of aid workers and military personnel, as well as a reduction in banking hours.

Ground transport disruptions are occurring between:

• Townships within Shan and Mon States

• Lashio and Mandalay

• Yangon and Sittwe

• Chin State and Sagaing Region

• Chin State and Magwe Region

Additionally, all ground and river transport connecting Rakhine State is blocked, with multiple access routes to Lashio, such as bridges and highways, facing disruptions in the past week. Ground transport and shipping disruptions are affecting trade with China, Bangladesh, and India. Border gates to China in Mongla, eastern Shan State, reportedly remain open. Cargo flights between Yangon International Airport (YIA) and Kunming in China are available. Additional ground transport and shipping disruptions, including at the Thai border, are likely at short notice. Mandalay (MDL) and Naypyidaw (NYT) international airports could also experience delays due to increased traffic from military aircraft; flight suspensions are probable if fighting escalates.

Utility and telecommunication outages are reportedly affecting conflict-hit areas of northern Shan State, northern Rakhine State, and Sagaing Region; Sagaing Region and Rakhine State are reportedly facing severe fuel shortages. Security restrictions and infrastructure damage may cause similar disruptions at short notice in other impacted areas.