UK, Ireland: Adverse weather associated with Storm Jocelyn forecast across much of Ireland and the UK through at least Jan. 24 /update 1

With disruptions ongoing across parts of Ireland and the UK following the passing of Storm Isha Jan. 21-22, another storm system is forecast to bring further severe weather across much of the region Jan. 23-24. Storm Jocelyn is forecast to move in from the Atlantic and take a path just north of that taken by Isha in recent days. The strongest winds are likely in parts of northern and western Ireland and northern and western Scotland, with winds gusting up to 129 kph (80 mph) possible in these areas. Rainfall accumulations of 15-20 cm (2-3 inches) are also forecast over parts of Scotland and northwestern England, with isolated higher amounts possible over higher ground. Heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and strong winds may cause property damage and power outages. Disruptions to air travel, ground transport, and ferry services are possible during the passing of the storm.

Many areas across both Ireland and the UK are still experiencing disruptions following the passing of Storm Isha, and the further adverse weather could exacerbate the situation in affected areas. Winds gusting up to 159 kph (99 mph) were recorded in parts of northern England during the passing of the storm. Authorities have reported one fatality in Scotland and one in Northern Ireland due to falling trees hitting vehicles. More than 155,000 homes in Ireland, 24,000 in Northern Ireland, and 30,000 across England, Wales, and Scotland remained without power as of Jan. 22. Dozens of schools across Scotland and Northern Ireland are closed due to the severe weather Jan. 22. Trains across Scotland were suspended late Jan. 21; services are gradually set to resume during the afternoon Jan. 22. Further disruptions to rail services have been reported across many parts of England. All ferry services across Scotland were canceled during the passing of the storm. Hundreds of flights across several UK and Ireland airports have been canceled, delayed, or diverted due to the severe weather.

Met Eireann has issued the following warnings across Ireland Jan. 23-24:

• Orange strong wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Donegal, Galway, and Mayo.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Across the rest of Ireland.

The UK Met Office has issued the following warnings across the UK late Jan. 23024:

• Amber strong wind (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Across parts of northern and western Scotland.

• Yellow rain warnings: Parts of central and southern Scotland and northwestern England.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Across Northern Ireland, Wales, Scotland, and northern and central England.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

Further disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding, strong winds, or landslides impact utility networks.

Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Severe weather could also trigger additional flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Flooding could block regional rail lines; further freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.