Brazil: Adverse weather forecast across southeastern regions through at least Feb. 20

Severe weather is forecast across parts of southeastern Brazil through at least Feb. 20. A subtropical cyclone is expected to form off the coast of Rio de Janeiro State and will bring heavy rainfall and strong winds across the region over the coming days. The heaviest rainfall is expected in coastal areas around the border between Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo states. Winds gusting up to 83 kph (52 mph) are possible in the region. Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Transport disruptions and power outages are also possible in affected areas.

As of early Feb. 15, Brazil's National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) has issued red (the highest level on a three-tier scale) heavy rainfall warnings for coastal areas of western Rio de Janeiro and eastern Sao Paulo states. Orange heavy rainfall warnings are in place across much of the rest of Rio de Janeiro, much of Parana, and parts of southern Mato Grosso do Sul, southern Minas Gerais, and central, eastern, and southern Sao Paulo states. Yellow warnings have been issued across the rest of the affected area. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. In developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems, additional urban flooding is also possible. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides remain possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Power outages and disruptions to telecommunications services are likely where significant flooding, landslides, or strong winds impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows could render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger intermittent flight delays and cancellations at airports in the affected regions, though these are unlikely to be severe or prolonged. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are possible in areas with heavy rainfall and track inundation. Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas.