20 Mar 2024 | 12:07 PM UTC
India: Increased security and rallies certain nationwide through early June for seven-phase general election
Political rallies, tight security, disruptions certain across India through early June for seven-phase general elections. Violence possible.
Increased security and political rallies are certain nationwide for India's seven-phase general election scheduled April 19-June 1. Election results are scheduled to be announced June 4. Nearly 970 million voters will be eligible to cast ballots to elect 543 members to the 18th Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament). Authorities will deploy hundreds of thousands of military, paramilitary, and police personnel to guard polls. Heightened security at government buildings, rally venues, poll stations, political party offices, interstate borders, and crowded public places is certain, especially in urban centers and areas with known militant activity.
Elections will occur in seven phases; authorities typically announce paid holidays for eligible voters in relevant constituencies. Details of the election schedule are as follows.
April 19: Elections will occur in 102 constituencies across 21 regions; notable locations include Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu states; Andaman and Nicobar islands, Lakshadweep, and Puducherry union territories.
April 26: Elections will occur in 89 constituencies across 13 regions; notable locations are Karnataka and Kerala states.
May 7: Elections will occur in 94 constituencies across 12 regions; notable locations are Gujarat and Goa states.
May 13: Elections will occur in 96 constituencies across 10 regions; notable locations are Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states.
May 20: Elections will occur in 49 constituencies across eight regions; notable locations are parts of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra states.
May 25: Elections will occur in 57 constituencies across seven regions; notable locations are Haryana State and Delhi Union Territory.
June 1: Elections will occur in 57 constituencies across eight regions; notable locations are Himachal Pradesh and Punjab states.
Political rallies will occur in various locations in the lead-up to local polling dates. Campaign events led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), incumbent state chief ministers, central ministers, and Indian National Congress Party (INC) leaders such as Rahul Gandhi will prompt extremely tight security and draw up to a few hundred thousand supporters. Large rallies will prompt traffic restrictions, vehicle and personnel checks, and potential localized business disruptions.
Political violence is possible in the lead-up to and during the vote in some high-risk locations like Kerala and West Bengal states. Clashes between supporters of rival parties may occur; such incidents may erupt with little or no notice during campaign events and rallies, as well as during voting. Various groups may demonstrate over their grievances in the coming weeks. Additional demonstrations by farmers in and around Delhi, and opponents of the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in the Assam and Tripura states cannot be ruled out. Other protests denouncing ruling state governments, as well as alleged unfairness of political parties in allocating candidacy tickers, are probable before elections. Officials in urban centers like state capitals are likely to impose Section 144 rules that prohibit unauthorized public gatherings involving more than four people, the carrying of arms in public, among others.
An increased risk of militant attacks prevails before, during, and just after elections. Attacks by separatist groups that are active in the Kashmir Valley, as well as parts of Northeast India like Assam and Manipur states, are possible. Maoist insurgents in parts of southern and eastern India may also increase shooting and bomb attacks targeting government and security entities in rural areas during polling, though significant attacks in urban centers are unlikely. Additionally, Islamist extremist groups remain a threat. Potential militant targets include security personnel, polling centers, election rallies, government facilities, and political party offices.
Enhanced security measures, including checkpoints, curfews, patrols, hotel and vehicle checks are underway across India to monitor and prevent election inducements. Security deployment and police roadblocks near large rallies and at nomination, voting, and counting centers are possible, potentially prompting localized business and transport disruptions. In the event of significant violence, officials may impose localized movement and telecommunication restrictions.
Prepare for increased security in India through at least early June. Make allowances for especially tight security on polling days in various regions. Avoid political rallies due to the threat of security incidents. Allow additional time for ground transportation near campaign events. Use caution near political party offices, polling stations, and election commission offices. Avoid all protests as a precaution. Immediately depart the area if an unruly crowd forms near you. Monitor local media for information on demonstrations and associated disruptions, as protests could spread to surrounding areas without notice. Heed all instructions from security personnel and be prepared for possible security checkpoints and identification checks, especially near sensitive sites and in areas with known militant activity.
