Indian Ocean: Tropical Depression Filipo tracking south-southwestward off the southeast coast of Mozambique as of early March 13 /update 4

Tropical Depression Filipo is tracking south-southwestward off the coast of southeastern Mozambique early March 13 after passing over Ihambane and southern Gaza provinces over the past 24 hours following landfall north of Inhassoro in Ihambane Province early March 12. As of 08:00, the system was around 835 km (519 miles) west-southwest of Europa Island.

Forecast models indicate that the system will strengthen into a moderate and then severe tropical storm as it tracks generally southeastward away from the African continent through early March 14 before weakening as it transitions into a post-tropical cyclone late March 14-early March 16. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast; significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 13, Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a red tropical storm advisory (the highest level on a three-tier scale) due to the probable impacts of Filipo. Rainfall totals of around 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) accompanied by thunderstorms are expected across parts of Ihambane, Gaza, and Maputo provinces and Maputo City through March 13. Strong winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are also expected in the affected areas and rough seas are likely along southeastern coastal areas.

The South African Weather Service has issued level 6 (out of 10) orange disruptive rain warnings across parts of far eastern Mpumalanga Province and far eastern KwaZulu-Natal Province. Yellow level 4 disruptive rain warnings are in place across much of the rest of eastern KawZulu-Natal, Limpopo, and Mpumalanga provinces. Yellow level 4 damaging wind warnings are in place of the east coast of KwaZulu-Natal.

The Eswatini Meteorological Service has issued a warning for heavy rainfall and strong winds with possible flooding mainly over eastern parts of the country March 13.

Preliminary assessments by authorities in Mozambique have confirmed one fatality, seven others injured, and at least 500 people have been displaced due to the passing of Filipo. Dozens of homes and other buildings have reportedly been destroyed in affected areas, with Ihambane Province the worst affected. Reports indicate that Filipo has affected hundreds of houses and several roads are impassable in the town of Vilankulo in Inhambane Province. Utility providers have reported nearly 100,000 people were without power due to the storm across Mozambique as of March 12, with around 83,000 of those affected in Ihambane Province. Damage assessments are ongoing in the affected areas and it may take some time before the extent of the storm's impact is confirmed.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.