Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across southern regions through at least June 13

Adverse weather is forecast across much of southern Mexico through at least June 13. A low-pressure area over the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to bring heavy rainfall to the region over the coming days. Thunderstorms accompanied by strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail are also possible in the affected areas. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas State June 10-13, Oaxaca June 10 and June 12-13, Campeche June 11-13, Quintana Roo and Yucatan June 11 and June 13, and Tabasco June 11-12. Totals of 5-7.5 cm (2-3 inches) are forecast in parts of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan June 10, Oaxaca June 11, Quintana Roo and Yucatan June 12, and Guerrero and Tabasco June 13. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations along the Pacific coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.