Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least July 5 /update 6

Adverse weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least July 5. A combination of meteorological factors, including low-pressure channels, a monsoon trough, and tropical waves, is expected to generate heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across many parts of the country over the coming days. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail are possible during storms. A low-pressure area with a possibility of cyclonic development is expected to track along the western Pacific coast July 2-4, enhancing the rainfall potential in wetern regions. Hurricane Beryl will approach the Yucatan Peninsula from July 4 and may make landfall over Quintana Roo State July 5; heavy rainfall and very strong winds are likely over southeastern regions during the passing of the storm system.

Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are expected in parts of Quintana Roo July 4-5, Yucatan July 4, and Campeche July 5. Totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are forecast across parts of Guerrero and Michoacan July 2-3, Chiapas and Oaxaca July 2, Colima and Jalisco July 3, Campeche July 4, and Tabasco and Yucatan July 5. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 (1-3 inches) are forecast across many other parts of the country over the coming days. Strong winds may generate whirlwinds and dust storms in parts of central and northern Mexico over the coming days. Strong winds from the respective storm systems will bring rough seas and possible waterspouts along the Pacific and Yucatan Peninsula coasts. High temperatures are expected to persist over northern regions, with highs of 40-45 C (104-113 F) possible in parts of Baja California, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Sonora July 2-5, Baja California Sur and Sinaloa July 2, and Tamaulipas July 4-5.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rain has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.