Bangladesh: Additional protests likely nationwide through early August amid further easing of security curbs /update 13

Further protests are likely across Bangladesh through early August amid additional easing of security curbs. Despite no reports of major unrest in recent days, student groups have called for additional protests nationwide from July 29 to demand the release of detained activists, among other grievances.

Authorities have extended nationwide curfews through at least July 30, with adjusted hours of 18:00-07:00 in Dhaka, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Narsingdi. In Chattogram, the curfew hours are 21:00-06:00. Other districts are likely to have similar curfew hours, though variations in relaxation periods are possible. Government and private offices, including banking services, can operate between 09:00 and 15:00. Officials have restored mobile internet services as of July 28, though social media platforms such as Facebook and Whatsapp remain restricted. Additional easing of restrictions is possible in the coming days if protest activity remains low.

Security measures
Ongoing security curbs will almost certainly continue. These include a nationwide ban on public gatherings in Dhaka, as well as internet, social media sites, and messaging restrictions. The army is enforcing a nationwide curfew, with powers to shoot violators to control violence; movement curbs are typically eased for nine hours from 07:00 to 18:00 daily to facilitate essential purchases. Other exempt groups, such as freight transporters, civil servants, and emergency workers, usually have to present their identity cards or police-issued movement passes. Essential services such as medical and emergency services, electricity, water, telecommunications, and port operations are exempt from the specified office hours and may continue to operate without restriction. The government closed educational institutions effective July 17. The unrest has prompted multiple countries like Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK to advise against all or nonessential travel to Bangladesh until further notice.

Security cordons and traffic restrictions are in place at government, state-funded, and security installations as a precaution due to previous arson attacks. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points of major cities as well as air and land ports. Although there is no specific or imminent terror threat, authorities will likely remain vigilant over the escape of at least nine militants associated with Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) in a protest-related jailbreak at Narsingdi District Jail July 20.

Civil unrest
Activists seeking merit-based job reservation reforms have held marches, sit-in protests, general strikes, and road and rail blockades in several areas since early July. Related demonstrations have killed over 200 people and injured a few thousand others, including security personnel. The largest and most disruptive gatherings involving a few thousand protesters have occurred in urban areas, especially Dhaka. Well-attended rallies typically take place in or near university campuses in Dhaka and other urban centers such as Bogura, Chattogram, and Rangpur. Other popular rally sites include bus and railway stations, monuments, public squares, and major intersections. Demonstrators have used projectiles, sharp weapons, firearms, and crude bombs to attack government offices, security personnel, and various vehicles, including police patrol vehicles, private cars, and public buses. Police have utilized mass arrests and significant force - including baton charges, tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition - to disperse gatherings.

Additional rallies organized by prominent student unions and opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami could attract tens of thousands of people, with a notable risk of violent escalations. Small-scale explosions, arson, vandalism attacks, riots, armed clashes between rival protest or political groups, and assassination attempts targeting political or student union leaders are possible.

Transport disruptions
The unrest has caused significant disruptions to passenger and freight rail services and vehicular traffic, especially within, to, and from Dhaka. Rail services are suspended until further notice, including the international rail link with India. Inter-district bus services in Dhaka have resumed, but with limited frequency. Long-distance public buses are resuming, though routes passing Dhaka remain suspended. Metro rail services in Dhaka will likely face prolonged interruptions due to protest-related damage at the Kazipara and Mirpur-10 stations.

Domestic and international flights are available. Due to security concerns and reduced demand, limited flight disruptions are likely at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC). Some carriers, like Emirates (EK) and Flydubai (FZ), have revised flight schedules. Additional flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, may occur.

Business and utility disruptions
Further business disruptions remain possible amid restrictions on operating hours. Mobile and broadband internet services are partially restored; disruptions to financial services like payment and banking transactions remain possible. Diplomatic facilities, including the US Embassy, may announce suspensions or curtailment of services, especially in response to planned or ongoing large rallies.

Prolonged and/or recurrent blockades may disrupt ground shipping, including at land ports. Port disruptions are unlikely, though ground operation delays due to protests are possible. Sustained curfews may prompt panic buying and stockpiling, potentially creating artificial shortages of essential items like food and fuel.