Bangladesh: Further protests and curfew extensions likely nationwide through at least late July despite court reducing controversial job quota /update 10

Anti-government protests with a high potential for further violence and widespread disruptions remain likely across Bangladesh through at least late July amid associated indefinite security measures. Demonstrations over the government's response to recent protests and other policy decisions are likely to continue in the coming weeks despite the Supreme Court reducing the controversial civil service job quotas for various groups. The largest and most disruptive gatherings involving a few thousand protesters will remain concentrated in urban areas, especially Dhaka. Anti-quota demonstrations in the past week have killed over 130 people and injured a few thousand others, including security personnel. The action has prompted multiple countries like Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK to advise against all or nonessential travel to Bangladesh until further notice.

Security Measures
Ongoing security curbs will almost certainly continue. These include a ban on public gatherings in Dhaka, as well as internet, social media sites, and messaging restrictions across the country. The army is also enforcing a nationwide curfew, with powers to shoot violators to control violence; movement curbs are typically eased for two or three hours from 14:00 daily to facilitate essential purchases. Other exempt groups such as freight transporters, civil servants, and emergency workers usually have to present their identity cards or police-issued movement passes. The government closed educational institutions effective July 17, while public holidays are in force July 21-22. Only emergency services will function during the holidays; additional holidays are likely to prevent violence.

Security cordons and traffic restrictions in place at government, state-funded, and security installations as a precaution due to previous arson attacks. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points of major cities as well as air and land ports. Although there is no specific or imminent terror threat, authorities will likely remain vigilant over the escape of at least nine militants associated with the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB); the individuals were freed in a protest-related jailbreak at Narsingdi District Jail on July 20.

Civil Unrest
Activists seeking merit-based job reservation reforms have held marches, sit-in protests, general strikes, and road and rail blockades in several areas since early July. Well-attended rallies have occurred in or near university campuses in Dhaka and other urban centers such as Bogura, Chattogram, and Rangpur. Other popular rally sites include bus and railway stations, monuments, public squares, and major intersections. Demonstrators have used projectiles, sharp weapons, firearms, and crude bombs to attack government offices, security personnel, and various vehicles, including police patrol vehicles, private cars, and public buses. Police have utilized mass arrests and significant force - including baton charges, tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition - to disperse gatherings.

Additional rallies organized by prominent student unions and opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami are likely to attract tens of thousands of people defying any official bans, with a notable risk of violent escalations. Small-scale explosions, arson and vandalism attacks, riots, armed clashes between rival protest or political groups, and assassination attempts targeting political or student union leaders cannot be ruled out.

Transport Disruptions
The ongoing unrest has caused significant disruptions to passenger and freight rail services, and vehicular traffic, especially within, to, and from Dhaka. Railway and highway blockades continue to occur sporadically in some areas, impeding transport on major routes, including in the capital. Public bus and rail services are suspended until further notice, including the international rail link with India. Limited domestic transport services are likely to operate on non-holidays, though Metro rail services in Dhaka are likely to face prolonged interruptions due to protest-related damage at the Kazipara and Mirpur-10 stations.

Domestic and international flights are available. Limited flight disruptions are likely at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC), mainly due to security concerns and a reduction in demand. Some carriers, like Emirates (EK), and Flydubai (FZ), have revised flight schedules. Additional flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, cannot be ruled out.

Business and Utility Disruptions
Business closures due to official holidays, internet unavailability, and employees' difficulties in reaching workplaces are likely to persist. In addition to security restrictions, damage to internet infrastructure is prompting mobile and broadband internet disruptions. Online financial services like payments and banking transactions are affected, while some users in and around Dhaka are facing gas and electricity outages due to online payment failures. The US Embassy was also closed to the public on July 18 and only offered limited services since July 19. Diplomatic facilities, including the US Embassy, may announce additional suspensions or curtailment of services, especially in response to planned or ongoing large rallies.

Prolonged and/or recurrent blockades may disrupt ground shipping, including at land ports. Port disruptions are unlikely, though ground operation delays due to protests cannot be ruled out. Sustained curfews may prompt panic buying and stockpiling, potentially creating artificial shortages of essential items like food and fuel.