Bangladesh: Further violent civil unrest likely nationwide through at least late July /update 7

Further rallies, violence, and related disruptions will likely persist in Bangladesh through at least late July. Since early July, student activists have staged various nationwide demonstrations, including railway and road blockades, to demand reforms to the public employment quota system and to address other related perceived grievances. As of July 18, the violence has resulted in at least 32 deaths and thousands of injuries. The government has temporarily suspended some mobile internet services across the country. Officials have shut down most academic institutions, including public and private high schools and universities, indefinitely due to escalating tensions. As of July 18, the US Embassy in Dhaka has closed as a precautionary measure.

Several rallies, counterprotests, and clashes have occurred in various urban centers, such as Bogura, Chattogram, Dhaka, and Rangpur. Primary rally sites have included transportation hubs, university campuses, and major thoroughfares. The ongoing tensions have caused significant disruptions to businesses, passenger and freight rail services, and vehicular traffic, especially in Dhaka. Railway and highway blockades continue to occur sporadically in some areas, affecting major routes in the capital. On July 16, minor flight delays were reported at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC) due to increased traffic congestion on Airport Road. Reports also indicate that protesters have carried improvised weapons, including iron rods and steel pipes, in some regions.

On July 18, protesters reportedly attacked and set fire to a traffic police box and vandalized police vehicles as clashes continued to occur in various parts of Dhaka. Protesters set fire to the headquarters of Bangladesh Television (BTV) in Dhaka, leaving several people trapped inside the facility; activists could commit similar actions targeting other public facilities over the coming weeks. Additionally, recent police raids on the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) headquarters have purportedly resulted in the discovery of incendiary materials, including crude bombs, wooden and bamboo sticks, and bottles of gasoline.

Further protest activities of varying types, including transport blockades, are highly likely to continue over the coming weeks. Counterdemonstrations by opposing groups could occur at short notice. Participation will vary by sponsoring entity and locale, with the potential to attract several thousand participants. Activists typically hold marches between university squares and major intersections or public squares. In Dhaka, potential gathering sites include the Dhaka and Jagannath University campuses, the Raju Memorial Sculpture, and the Shahbagh area.

Authorities are maintaining an increased security presence in Dhaka, Bogura, Chattogram, and Rajshahi districts. Depending on operational needs, officials may expand their presence to additional regions and implement enhanced restrictions, including temporary curbs on public movement. Officials reportedly suspended mobile internet services in Dhaka on July 18, affecting areas including Dhanmondi, Green Road, Jatrabari, Nilkhet, Palashi, Science Lab, and university areas nationwide. This is likely to hinder activists' mobilization efforts; similar measures are likely during any upcoming rallies.

Authorities could also use force, including baton charges and tear gas, to disperse unruly crowds. Additional clashes between protesters and police, as well as between supporters of opposing groups, are possible. Further isolated security incidents, including arson and vandalism, cannot be ruled out. Further localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.