Bangladesh: Rallies planned nationwide through late July amid further easing of security curbs /update 12

Further rallies are planned across Bangladesh through late July amid further easing of security curbs. The ruling Awami League (AL) will hold a rally at its political party office along Bangabandhu Avenue July 26; organizers did not provide a specific time but could schedule the gathering after Friday afternoon prayers. AL has also called for congregational prayers at all mosques July 26 and at various places of worship nationwide July 28 to honor protest victims. Additional anti-government protests, including counterdemonstrations by student groups and opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami, are possible during the events.

Authorities have extended nationwide overnight curfews through at least July 27, with adjusted hours of 17:00 to 08:00 in Dhaka, Munshiganj, Narayanganj, and Narsingdi. Other districts are likely to have similar curfew hours, though variations in relaxation periods are possible. Officials have partially restored broadband internet services primarily for commercial, banking, and media entities, though mobile internet services remain disrupted through at least July 29. Additional easing of restrictions is possible in the coming days if protest activity remains low.

Security measures

Ongoing security curbs will almost certainly continue. These include a nationwide ban on public gatherings in Dhaka, as well as internet, social media sites, and messaging restrictions. The army is enforcing a nationwide curfew, with powers to shoot violators to control violence; movement curbs are typically eased for nine hours from 08:00 to 17:00 daily to facilitate essential purchases. Other exempt groups, such as freight transporters, civil servants, and emergency workers, usually have to present their identity cards or police-issued movement passes. Government and private offices, including banking services, are permitted to operate between 11:00 and 15:00. Essential services such as medical and emergency services, electricity, water, telecommunications, and port operations are exempted from the specified office hours and may continue to operate without restriction. The government closed educational institutions effective July 17. The unrest has prompted multiple countries like Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK to advise against all or nonessential travel to Bangladesh until further notice.

Security cordons and traffic restrictions are in place at government, state-funded, and security installations as a precaution due to previous arson attacks. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points of major cities as well as air and land ports. Although there is no specific or imminent terror threat, authorities will likely remain vigilant over the escape of at least nine militants associated with the Ansarullah Bangla Team (ABT) and Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB); the individuals were freed in a protest-related jailbreak at Narsingdi District Jail July 20.

Civil unrest

Activists seeking merit-based job reservation reforms have held marches, sit-in protests, general strikes, and road and rail blockades in several areas since early July. Related demonstrations have killed over 200 people and injured a few thousand others, including security personnel. The largest and most disruptive gatherings involving a few thousand protesters have occurred in urban areas, especially Dhaka. Well-attended rallies have occurred in or near university campuses in Dhaka and other urban centers such as Bogura, Chattogram, and Rangpur. Other popular rally sites include bus and railway stations, monuments, public squares, and major intersections. Demonstrators have used projectiles, sharp weapons, firearms, and crude bombs to attack government offices, security personnel, and various vehicles, including police patrol vehicles, private cars, and public buses. Police have utilized mass arrests and significant force - including baton charges, tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition - to disperse gatherings.

Additional rallies organized by prominent student unions and opposition parties like the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami will likely attract tens of thousands of people defying official bans, with a notable risk of violent escalations. Small-scale explosions, arson, vandalism attacks, riots, armed clashes between rival protest or political groups, and assassination attempts targeting political or student union leaders are possible.

Transport disruptions

The unrest has caused significant disruptions to passenger and freight rail services and vehicular traffic, especially within, to, and from Dhaka. Railway and highway blockades continue sporadically in some areas, impeding transport on major routes, including in the capital. Public bus and rail services are suspended until further notice, including the international rail link with India. Long-distance public buses are resuming, though routes passing Dhaka remain suspended. Limited domestic transport services are likely to operate on non-holidays. However, Metro rail services in Dhaka will likely face prolonged interruptions due to protest-related damage at the Kazipara and Mirpur-10 stations.

Domestic and international flights are available. Due to security concerns and reduced demand, limited flight disruptions are likely at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC). Some carriers, like Emirates (EK) and Flydubai (FZ), have revised flight schedules. Additional flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, may occur.

Business and utility disruptions

Business closures due to official holidays, internet unavailability, and employees' difficulties in reaching workplaces will likely persist. In addition to security restrictions, damage to internet infrastructure is prompting mobile and broadband internet disruptions. Online financial services like payments and banking transactions are affected, while some users in and around Dhaka face gas and electricity outages due to online payment failures. Diplomatic facilities, including the US Embassy, may announce suspensions or curtailment of services, especially in response to planned or ongoing large rallies.

Prolonged and/or recurrent blockades may disrupt ground shipping, including at land ports. Port disruptions are unlikely, though ground operation delays due to protests are possible. Sustained curfews may prompt panic buying and stockpiling, potentially creating artificial shortages of essential items like food and fuel.