04 Aug 2024 | 12:34 PM UTC
Bangladesh: Additional protests, escalating tensions likely nationwide through early August amid renewed clashes /update 16
Further protests, increased tensions likely across Bangladesh through early August amid renewed clashes. Casualties reported.
Further protests and increased tensions are likely across Bangladesh through early August. On Aug. 4, fresh clashes erupted in Dhaka and other urban centers between supporters of the "anti-discrimination student movement" and supporters of the ruling Awami League. The student-led protesters are calling for a non-cooperation movement across the country and demanding the resignation of the government. Several casualties, including at least 32 killed and hundreds injured, are reported as of Aug. 4; however, the exact number remains unclear. Authorities announced a total shutdown of mobile internet services and have implemented an indefinite curfew nationwide, except in rural areas, from 18:00 Aug. 4 until further notice. The government also announced a three-day general holiday until Aug. 7 in an effort to curb the violence.
Civil Unrest
Police have conducted mass arrests and used force - including baton charges, tear gas, rubber bullets, and live ammunition - to disperse gatherings. Additional rallies organized by prominent student unions and opposition parties could attract tens of thousands of people, with the potential to escalate violence. Small-scale explosions, arson, vandalism attacks, riots, armed clashes between rival protest or political groups, and assassination attempts targeting political or student union leaders are possible.
Security measures
Ongoing security measures are expected to persist, including a ban on public gatherings in Dhaka, as well as restrictions on the internet, social media, and messaging. Essential services such as medical and emergency services, electricity, water, telecommunications, and port operations are exempt from these restrictions and may operate without limitation. The unrest has led countries like Australia, Canada, the US, and the UK to advise against all or nonessential travel to Bangladesh until further notice.
Checkpoints are likely to continue at major city entry points, as well as at air and land ports.
Transport disruptions
The unrest has caused significant disruptions to passenger and freight rail services and vehicular traffic, especially within, to, and from Dhaka. Inter-district bus services and Metro rail services in Dhaka will likely face prolonged interruptions due to protest-related damage at transport hubs and stations.
Domestic and international flights are available. Due to security concerns and reduced demand, limited flight disruptions are likely at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC). Some carriers, like Emirates (EK) and Flydubai (FZ), have revised flight schedules. Additional flight disruptions, including delays and cancellations, could occur.
Prolonged and/or recurrent blockades may disrupt ground shipping, including at land ports. Protests are likely to cause shipping, port disruptions, and ground operation delays. Sustained curfews may prompt panic buying and stockpiling, potentially creating artificial shortages of essential items like food and fuel.
Avoid all public gatherings due to the potential for increased violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm ground transport and flight arrangements before departure; do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks, as protesters could attack vehicles. Plan accordingly for business disruptions. Monitor trusted local media for updates on protests and associated disruptions, as organizers may not announce them in advance. Heed all official instructions, including curfew orders, security and traffic advisories. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Activists seeking merit-based job reservation reforms have held marches, sit-in protests, general strikes, and road and rail blockades in several areas since early July. The demonstrations initially started after a lower court order reinstated job quotas that were reformed in 2018 following similar student protests. Related demonstrations have killed over 200 people and injured a few thousand others, including security personnel. The largest and most disruptive gatherings involving a few thousand protesters have occurred in urban areas, especially Dhaka. Well-attended rallies typically take place in or near university campuses, transportation hubs, public squares, and major intersections. Demonstrators have used projectiles, sharp weapons, firearms, and crude bombs to attack government offices, security personnel, and various vehicles, including police patrol vehicles, private cars, and public buses.
On July 21, the Supreme Court of Bangladesh ruled that reservation in civil service jobs for families of veterans who served in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War would be reduced from 30 percent to five percent. The reservations for other categories, such as ethnic minorities and physically challenged, were also adjusted downwards after pro-merit protests turned violent. Additional unrest over further reduction in reservation and/or wider government policies is likely.
On July 31, authorities banned the opposition Jamaat-e-Islami party (JI) and its student wing for their role in the violence during student-led protests against government job reservations. This ban, along with the potential for further bans on other opposition parties like the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), will almost certainly lead to further disruptive demonstrations.
