India: Security operations likely to intensify in Manipur through late October amid drone attacks /update 28

Security operations and related disruptions will likely intensify in Manipur through late October amid recent drone attacks. On Sept. 1, suspected Kuki militants launched coordinated gun and bomb assaults in the Koutruk area of the Meitei-dominated Imphal West District, killing at least two individuals and injuring six others. Reports indicate that militants deployed several rocket-propelled grenades using drones, marking a shift in tactics and escalation in the conflict. In response, the Manipur government has deployed additional security forces to the region and are imposing an overnight curfew 22:00-05:00 in Imphal West District. The incident follows protests by Kuki activists in Churachandpur and Kangokpi districts Aug. 31, where they denounced Chief Minister N Biren Singh’s involvement in the ongoing conflict.

Activists will likely continue to stage sporadic protests across the state, including shutdown strikes (bandh) and roadblocks. Such actions have significantly disrupted cargo delivery and vehicular movement between Imphal and other parts of Manipur. Prolonged roadblocks have also been known to affect the transport of essential goods, such as fuel and foodstuffs, especially to and from the Imphal Valley. Kuki- and Meitei-based organizations typically stage the most disruptive strikes. Typical rally sites include residences of local politicians and security installations, as well as prominent government buildings, public squares, and thoroughfares. Larger gatherings often draw thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly continue to maintain an increased security presence across Manipur for the foreseeable future, potentially imposing further internet and mobile communications suspensions, as well as other restrictions, such as curfews, depending on changing operational needs. The government has deployed paramilitary forces along various state highways to ensure unimpeded transport movement in Manipur. Police may conduct mass arrests and use force, including rubber bullets, live ammunition, baton charges, and tear gas, to disperse any demonstrations that materialize. Minor bombings, acts of intimidation, clashes, arson, and vandalism targeting rival groups, security personnel, politicians, and government buildings are possible. Kuki militants typically target security personnel near police stations. Associated localized transport and business disruptions are highly likely.