Mexico: Hurricane John tracking northwestward off the coast of Guerrero State afternoon Sept. 26 /update 5

Hurricane John is tracking northwestward off the coast of Michoacan State, Mexico, the afternoon of Sept. 26. The storm previously made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane south-southwest of Marquelia late Sept. 23 before weakening into a tropical depression and moving back out into the Pacific Ocean Sept. 24. As of 15:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 105 km (65 miles) south-southwest of Lazaro Cardenas, Michoacan State.

Forecast models indicate that John will strengthen slightly and make landfall near Tizupan in Michoacan early Sept. 27. After landfall, John is forecast to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks northwestward over far southwestern Michoacan State and exits into the North Pacific Ocean the afternoon of Sept. 27. John is forecast to weaken further into a tropical depression as it tracks just off the coasts of Colima State late Sept. 27 then Jalisco State early Sept. 28 before transitioning into a post-tropical cyclone as it tracks northwestward away from Jalisco State through early Sept. 29. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur over the coming days.

As of the afternoon of Sept. 26, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo

• Hurricane Watch: west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

• Tropical Storm Warning: Punta Maldonado to east of Tecpan de Galeana and west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo

Hurricane conditions are expected along the coast within the hurricane warning area by late Sept. 26 or early Sept. 27. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing along the coast and will continue to spread inland. Wind speeds in elevated locations, atop, and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often stronger than near-surface winds. A dangerous storm surge is forecast to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the system makes landfall. Large and destructive waves near the coast will likely accompany the surge.

Forecast models indicate that the system will produce additional rainfall totals of 25-50 cm (10-20 inches) across parts of Guerrero and Michoacan states through Sept. 27. Additional rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is forecast across Colima and western Oaxaca states. Swells from the system will continue affecting the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico over the coming days. The swells may cause dangerous surf and rip currents.

Several ports are closed to small vessels ahead of John's approach, including Acapulco, Puerto Marquez, and Zihuatanejo in Guerrero State and Lazaro Cardenas in Michoacan State. Authorities have opened hundreds of shelters across parts of Guerrero and Michoacan states, and civil protection authorities have issued the highest red-level alert in Guerrero. Schools are closed across parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Oaxaca. Acapulco International Airport (ACA) is closed until further notice. Due to landslides and flooding, the Autopista del Sol Highway is closed from the Palo Blanco toll booth to the La Venta toll booth in both directions. Power to the Diamante Zone of Acapulco has been cut off, affecting more than 1,100 people.

Flooding, landslides, blocked roads, power outages, and other associated disruptions were reported across parts of Guerrero and Oaxaca after the storm first made landfall. Authorities have reported at least seven storm-related fatalities in Guerrero and three fatalities in Oaxaca. At least 300 homes have been flooded in parts of Guerrero State. At the height of the storm, more than 206,000 people in Guerrero and Oaxaca were without power. Additional adverse weather associated with the storm will likely exacerbate the situation in affected areas.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, additional flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.