09 Oct 2024 | 03:56 PM UTC
Bangladesh: Further protests and related disruptions likely nationwide through at least late October /update 26
Additional rallies, disruptions likely in Bangladesh through at least late October. Increased security likely; clashes possible.
Further rallies and related disruptions are likely nationwide through at least late October as the interim government works to stabilize the country following the ousting of long-time Prime Minister and Awami League (AL) leader Sheikh Hasina. On Sept. 17, the interim government granted commissioned officers in the Bangladesh Army executive magistrate powers for 60 days. Under the Criminal Procedural Code (CrPC) of 1898, the move empowers the officers with expanded authority to detain suspects, issue arrest warrants, search for evidence, rescue individuals from illegal detention, disperse illegal gatherings, enforce arrest warrants beyond their usual jurisdictions, and take other actions to maintain public order.
The decision likely comes in response to several weeks of heightened civil unrest and tensions across the country. Reports also suggest that inmates have escaped from multiple prisons in recent months, with approximately 1,332 prisoners recaptured and about 909 still at large. The escape of prisoners could lead to increased security risks, including potential targeted attacks and a rise in criminal activity.
Civil Unrest/Violence
Unionized garment and other manufacturing workers continue to hold work stoppages, causing related intermittent factory closures and business disruptions, mainly in Dhaka Division. Other groups, including student organizations and political parties, have organized various demonstrations, including marches and roadblocks. The AL party will probably hold sporadic rallies to demand that Hasina be returned to office; several AL leaders and family members have reportedly been killed in violent incidents. Minority groups, including Hindus, have staged demonstrations following targeted attacks at various residences, businesses, and places of worship.
Future demonstrations will likely attract large crowds, especially near transportation hubs, public squares, and major intersections. Sporadic security incidents, such as arson, looting, and vandalism, continue to target cultural sites, media offices, government buildings, and Awami League offices and leaders' residences. Political tensions will likely intensify.
Security Measures
As a precaution, increased security measures, including cordons and traffic restrictions, are likely in place at government, state-funded, and security installations. Checkpoints will almost certainly continue at entry points to major cities, as well as at air and sea ports.
Transport Disruptions
Borders remain open with heightened security, and Bangladesh Railway has resumed full services. Inter-district and long-distance bus services in Dhaka are limited, while flights are operating at Dhaka's Hazrat Shahjalal International Airport (DAC) and Sylhet's Osmani International Airport (ZYL). Minor flight disruptions may occur and officials could close airports at short notice if unrest escalates.
The Indian Border Security Force (BSF) has increased personnel in some neighboring northeastern states due to concerns about spillover violence and an influx of individuals crossing the border. While trade has resumed at most border crossings, heightened security measures could delay the movement of goods and people at land ports.
Business and Utility Disruptions
Banking disruptions could occur if sporadic protest activity persists. The US Embassy in Dhaka has resumed providing certain routine consular services. Other diplomatic facilities may suspend or curtail services depending on the local security situation.
Avoid all public gatherings due to the potential for increased violence. Depart the area at the first sign of any security disturbance. Confirm ground transport and flight arrangements before departure; do not check out of accommodations without confirming onward travel. Do not attempt to navigate any roadblocks, as protesters could attack vehicles. Plan accordingly for business disruptions. Heed all official instructions, including curfew orders, security and traffic advisories. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations.
Nationwide demonstrations have recently decreased, and operational disruptions are likely to ease as the interim government stabilizes amid ongoing political uncertainty. Protests, initially led by university students against a controversial job quota system favoring descendants of 1971 Liberation War veterans, peaked when Prime Minister Hasina resigned and fled after her residence was stormed. An interim government led by Muhammad Yunus has since been established, with military officials in talks with student leaders about the transition.
The tenure of Bangladesh's interim government remains unclear, with some political groups advocating for elections within three months following the ousting of Sheikh Hasina. Meanwhile, some sources indicate the next election is constitutionally mandated to occur by Jan. 8, 2029, and discussions are ongoing about democratic reforms that the interim government may implement before the next elections.
