03 Oct 2024 | 11:26 PM UTC
Mexico: Remnants of Tropical Depression 11 tracking northward off the coast of Oaxaca State the afternoon of Oct. 3 /update 3
Remnants of TD 11 tracking northward in the eastern Pacific Ocean the afternoon of Oct. 3. Landfall over Oaxaca State, Mexico, imminent.
Remnants of Tropical Depression 11 are tracking northward in the eastern Pacific Ocean off the coast of Oaxaca State, Mexico, the afternoon of Oct. 3. As of 15:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 85 km (55 miles) southeast of Salina Cruz, Oaxaca State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm make landfall east of Salina Cruz late Oct. 3. After landfall, the system is expected to transition into a post-tropical cyclone with tropical depression strength winds and then dissipate as it tracks northward inland over eastern Oaxaca early Oct. 4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast and significant changes could occur in the coming hours and days.
As of the afternoon of Oct. 3, authorities have rescinded all coastal watches and warnings in relation to the storm. Gusts to tropical storm force winds are possible along portions of the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Oct. 3. Additional rainfall of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches), with localized amounts up to 20 cm (8 inches), is forecast across portions of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero states. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides.
Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. Swells generated by the storm are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations are possible.
Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
