03 Dec 2024 | 06:57 PM UTC
Sudan: Further clashes between rival factions likely nationwide through at least early January /update 55
Further fighting between rival factions likely in Sudan, especially Khartoum, through at least early January.
Further clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) are likely through at least early January. Renewed fighting has erupted in several cities, including Khartoum, Omdurman, Al-Fashir (North Darfur), and Sennar. The SAF reportedly recaptured Umm Al-Qura area near Wad Madani in Gezira State and the Sinnar Sugar Factory area in Sinnar State. Since the start of the conflict, fighting has left more than 20,000 people dead and many thousands of others wounded. The conflict has displaced approximately 11 million people, both within Sudan and across its borders. Severe internet and mobile phone service disruptions have occurred nationwide. Moreover, food, water, medicine, and fuel supplies are limited, including in Khartoum.
Travel disruptions
Airstrikes, explosions, and heavy machine gunfire have been reported in several locations across the nation's capital, including in the vicinity of Khartoum International Airport (KRT). Sudan's eastern region airspace is open. However, Chad's land border with Sudan remains closed until further notice. No other neighboring countries have formally taken similar measures, although land borders are almost certainly under heightened surveillance.
Khartoum
Authorities have ordered all foreign nationals to leave Khartoum State due to reports of foreign fighters within the RSF. While the order was likely issued out of an abundance of caution, the Sudanese Director of the Foreigners and Immigration Control Department, Colonel Nizar Khalil, in consultation with the Khartoum State Security Coordination Committee, announced that the measure was to ensure the safety of foreign nationals amid ongoing domestic security challenges.
Large areas of Khartoum remain contested, including in the city center near KRT, the Presidential Palace, Khartoum North, part of Omdurman, and some of the Nile bridges. The SAF reportedly targets RSF positions with occasional airstrikes. It is unclear which side retains control of critical infrastructure and military installations. Fighting between the RSF and SAF has caused power outages and water shortages in several areas. Most hospitals are closed or operating at reduced capacity due to damage and lack of medicine. Authorities have also imposed an indefinite curfew on pedestrian and vehicular movement between the hours of 23:00-5:00, with all commercial activities also being banned nightly during the same time frame.
Criminal incidents persist in the Khartoum area despite authorities deploying additional police to combat looting, home invasions, assaults, and carjackings. Artillery fire and criminal elements have also targeted aid workers and their facilities, as well as other civilians.
Other Areas
In North and West Darfur states, the Darfur Joint Forces, allied with the SAF, initiated combat against the RSF across three battlefronts. The coalition engaged the RSF in fierce battles in the northern desert regions of Mellit and Kutum in North Darfur while seizing control of Kalbus in West Darfur. Additionally, in south-central Sudan, the SAF recaptured Jebel Moya area, which connects their forces in Sennar City and White Nile State. Heavy fighting between rival tribes has also been reported in several locations, resulting in an unspecified number of civilian casualties. It is unclear whether SAF or RSF forces have been involved in these clashes. While the status of the previously active states of emergency in Al-Gadarif, South Kordofan, North Kordofan, and Red Sea states is not immediately clear, authorities in Al-Gezira are enforcing a dusk-to-dawn curfew until further notice.
Security forces on both sides will almost certainly remain deployed nationwide, particularly around routes near military bases, government buildings, telecommunications centers, and strategic transport hubs. Further state-of-emergency declarations are likely. Disruptions to road travel, airports, border crossings, internet and mobile phone services, and access to essential goods are probable. Local authorities may also impose curfews. Amid the ongoing armed conflict, increased security measures are certain in Khartoum State. Authorities could impose further enhanced security measures on foreign nationals abroad
Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Avoid concentrations of security personnel. Liaise with trusted contacts for further information. Reconfirm road status if ground travel is unavoidable. Carry personal identification documents at all times. Conserve battery power on essential equipment, such as mobile phones. Conserve basic supplies, including food and water.
The fighting is a continuation of the years-long power struggle between Sudan's de facto ruler, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, widely known as Hemedti. The pair have disagreed over several issues, including plans to integrate the RSF into the SAF - a move that would effectively result in Hemedti's losing control over his forces.
Tensions between the two leaders worsened after the military and civilian opposition groups signed a deal to end the impasse between security and political elites in December 2023. The deal's framework called for the formation of a transitional civilian government in early April 2024; however, several issues hindered implementation, including the ongoing disagreement between al-Burhan and Hemedti over integrating the RSF into the military.
The RSF mainly evolved out of the Janjaweed militias, which former President Omar Bashir had organized to put down a 2003 uprising in Darfur. The RSF is separate from the Sudanese regular military and has been competing for power and resources for years. In 2013, Bashir reshaped the group into a paramilitary organization by giving its leaders military ranks.
