Turkey: Potential events related to Kurdish referendum Sep. 25 /update 1

Event

The Kurdish population in Turkey may hold a variety of events on Monday, September 25, depending on the outcome of the independence referendum in Iraq. Masood Barzani, the leader of the Autonomous Iraqi Kurdistan, has stated that the vote will be held despite calls from the government in Baghdad and elsewhere in the international community to cancel or postpone the referendum. Around 15 million Kurds live in Turkey, and will likely react to either the result or cancelation of the vote. Rallies, celebrations, or protests may take place in Turkey, particularly in the southeastern provinces. Clashes between Kurds and security forces may also occur. Remain vigilant.

Context

Turkish military forces started a week-long military exercise near the Turkey-Iraq border near the Habur border gate on September 18. The government in Ankara has opposed the referendum in Iraq and condemned attempts by Kurdish separatists to organize the referendum, which it considers illegal and a threat to its national security. Iran has warned of serious retaliation if the vote goes ahead, and Iraq’s Supreme Court has ordered that it be suspended.

Kurdish separatists have waged a three-decade long insurgency in Turkey, spearheaded by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) – a group multiple countries regard as a terrorist organization. Since 2015, clashes between Kurdish militants, notably the PKK, and government security forces have increased after the collapse of a longstanding ceasefire.

Kurdistan separatists in neighboring northern Iraq have repeatedly called for independence and have attempted multiple times to organize a referendum since 2014. Support for the referendum gained momentum after Baghdad abandoned certain areas in northern Iraq to the Islamic State (IS). Kurdish forces, financed by the US, eventually pushed back IS and established de facto control over the areas.

Advice

Individuals in the area are advised to remain vigilant, to keep abreast of the situation, and to avoid all areas where military drills or operations are taking place. Potential protests linked to the referendum should also be strictly avoided. Due to the Turkish government's ongoing conflicts with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) as well as the Islamic State (IS), most Western governments advise against all travel to areas along the Syrian and Iraqi borders, as well as nonessential travel to the provinces of Şırnak, Gaziantep, Diyarbakir, Mardin, Şanlıurfa, Kilis, Hatay, Siirt, Tunceli, and Hakkâri.