CAR: Authorities declare nationwide state of emergency, Jan. 21-Feb. 5 /update 5

Event

Authorities in the Central African Republic (CAR) have declared a 15-day nationwide state of emergency from Jan. 21-Feb. 5. The edict is in response to persisting insecurity following the country's Dec. 2020 elections. Security forces will have increased powers of arrest under the state of emergency. The new measure follows reports of rebels attacking freight convoys traveling between neighboring states and the capital, Bangui.

The nationwide 1800-0500 nightly curfew remains in place indefinitely. Following the Jan. 13 attack on Bangui, militia groups will likely continue to conduct attacks on government forces nationwide as rival armed factions, including the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC) rebel coalition, attempt to pressure the government and derail the post-election political process. Recurrent attacks since mid-December have occurred in Mbomou, Ouham-Pende, Ouaka, Lobaye, and Ombella-M'poko prefectures.

Opposition political groups have also called for the annulment of the Dec. 27 election results, claiming various electoral irregularities. Security forces will probably remain deployed in major urban centers and areas with opposition events as a deterrent. Protesters have clashed with security forces in the past; attempts by security forces to disperse gatherings or prevent supporters from gathering could increase the potential for disturbances. Police may use tear gas, water cannon, batons, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to disperse protesters. Ground travel disruptions are likely near all protest sites.

Bangui
An increased security presence in Bangui has been reported since mid-December due to increased rebel activity and associated threats to the capital. Security forces could implement additional measures following the imposition of the state of emergency. Security protocols will likely prompt localized transport disruptions in the city. Any clashes that materialize will likely have a significant impact on those operating in the affected area. Under such circumstances, threats to personal safety and transportation disruptions are likely.

Context

Political tensions are currently elevated after opposition groups rejected the outcome of the elections after the electoral commission's Jan. 4 announcement that Touadera had won. Foreign governments have issued warnings and alerts over the current security and political situation, which remains extremely poor; the level of fighting has steadily increased in parts of the country since the 2019 peace accord, particularly in northwestern CAR. In Bangui, the situation remains fragile and could deteriorate with little-to-no notice. Outside Bangui, militias have continued to assert control by setting up roadblocks and committing acts of violence that have exacerbated ethnic tensions. Militants control approximately two-thirds of the country.

The relationship between opposition leaders and rival militia groups is unclear; however, authorities have accused former President Francois Bozize of allying himself to armed groups and fomenting a plan to destabilize the country. Bozize is known to have the support of the Return, Reclamation, and Rehabilitation (3R) militia, while Anicet-Georges Dologuele, who came second in the election, is supported by Bozize. The Public Prosecutor's Office in Bangui opened a judicial investigation against Bozize Jan. 4 for his alleged involvement in ongoing instability.

Militia attacks are likely to continue after four major militia leaders were expelled from the national government Jan. 2 due to their involvement in threatening the government and its conduct in elections. These leaders include Maxime Mokom, of the 3R militia, and Ali Darassa, leader of the Unit for Peace (UPC) militia. Militia leaders were given official positions as part of a 2019 peace and integration agreement between them and the government, which has since broken down.

Advice

Liaise with trusted in-country contacts and monitor the situation closely. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation if operating in CAR through early February. Avoid all protests, election-related gatherings, or areas where violence has recently occurred. Plan for potential ground travel or business disruptions. Do not drive through protester roadblocks. Reconfirm all business appointments. Heed the instructions of local security personnel. Consider postponing all travel outside the capital.