South Africa: Protests by ruling ANC party supporters possible nationwide through mid-April

Event

Protests by supporters of some senior African National Congress (ANC) leaders accused of corruption and other crimes are possible nationwide through mid-April. The ANC National Executive Committee (NEC), the primary decision-making body of the ANC, held a meeting in late March, the outcome of which was that senior members charged for corruption or other serious crimes should step down within 30 days. Among those implicated is ANC Secretary-General, Ace Magashule. Unconfirmed local media reports April 4 indicate that supporters of Magashule and former President Jacob Zuma may be organizing disruptive nationwide protests, including blocking major routes and gathering in city centers. No exact details have been provided.

Should protest occur, these are likely near the ANC headquarters, Luthuli House, in Johannesburg, the seat of the South Africa government, the Union Buildings in Tshwane (Pretoria), or the Parliament buildings in Cape Town. Other possible locations are city centers, particularly those in Johannesburg, Tshwane, Bloemfontein, and Durban. Should protests materialize, heightened security is likely. Police will deploy to monitor crowds. Clashes are possible if protesters ignore police orders to disperse. Clashes are also possible if demonstrators engage in acts of public violence. Counterprotests may occur.

Context

The NEC meeting outcome has increased political tensions between various senior ANC leaders. Groupings within the hierarchy, either supportive of President Cyril Ramaphosa or the so-called Radical Economic Transformation (RET) faction linked to Magashule and Zuma, continue to compete for power within the structures of the ruling party. On April 1, The ANC in Johannesburg issued a statement condemning a planned April 4 meeting by the Gauteng RET President Zuma Support Group. The statement went on to denounce the group as "counter-revolutionary." This followed a March 29 statement by the ANC following the NEC meeting which condemned the formation of groups within the ANC that undermined its unity. The statement specifically noted that no member should involve themselves with the RET. Tensions are likely to persist for several more weeks coinciding with ongoing internal ANC competition and recurring legal cases against senior members of the party accused of corruption.

Advice

Liaise with trusted contacts and monitor local media for updates on possible protests. Exercise caution and heightened vigilance in possible protest areas. Avoid all protests that materialize. Plan for ground travel disruptions near protest sites.