Armenia, Azerbaijan: Tensions remain high in shared border regions of Armenia and Azerbaijani, as of May 27, following multiple non-violent incidents /update 1

Event

Tensions will likely remain heightened between Armenia and Azerbaijan through at least early June following recent reports of several cross-border incidents. Most recently, Azerbaijani security forces arrested six Armenian service members who had reportedly infiltrated Azerbaijani territory near the ghost village of Yuxari Ayrim in the Kalbajar District early on May 27. Armenian officials state the arrested troops were conducting border demarcation activities within Armenia's Gegharkunik Province. No clashes took place.

The May 27 incident is the latest in a string of cross-border incidents between the two nations. In recent weeks, Azerbaijani officials have accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in the Kalbajar District. On at least one occasion, Azerbaijani troops fired on Armenian positions along the shared border in this area. On May 12, Armenian troops confronted Azerbaijani soldiers after they crossed around 3 km (2 miles) into Armenia's Syunik Province under the pretext of a border demarcation issue. Several other low-level incidents have been reported. No significant armed clashes have been reported.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming days. Security forces may erect checkpoints; localized disruptions are likely.

Additionally, Armenia has been persistently lobbying for the release of ethnic Armenian prisoners of war following the major clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September-November 2020. While Azerbaijan has released several such prisoners, including through prisoner swaps, a significant number remain in Azerbaijani captivity. The issue occasionally prompts demonstrations and other street gatherings in Yerevan.

Context

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents. The CSTO has refrained from issuing a collective response; however, Russia has called on the opposing nations to form a joint commission to resolve long-standing border demarcation issues. Although little progress has been made in this regard, Armenia and Azerbaijan have indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. Direct conflict between the two nations continues to be assessed as unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has calmed. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming days, particularly along the Syunik Province, Armenia-Lachin District, Azerbaijan and Gegharkunik Province, Armenia-Kalbajar District, Azerbaijan borders. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.