Armenia, Azerbaijan: Tensions remain high in shared border regions as of June 7 /update 2

Event

Tensions remain heightened between Armenia and Azerbaijan as of June 7, following the suspension of trilateral talks between the two countries and Russia on introducing transportation links crossing Armenian territory. Crossborder incidents and ceasefire violations have also been reported in recent weeks, including the May 27 arrest of six Armenian service members who had reportedly infiltrated Azerbaijani territory near the ghost village of Yuxari Ayrim in Kalbajar District. Armenian officials state the arrested troops were conducting border demarcation activities within Armenia's Gegharkunik Province. Azerbaijani officials have accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District.

On at least one occasion, Azerbaijani troops fired on Armenian positions along the shared border in this area. On May 12, Armenian troops confronted Azerbaijani soldiers after they crossed around 3 km (2 miles) into Armenia's Syunik Province under the pretext of a border demarcation issue. Several other low-level incidents have been reported. No significant armed clashes have so far been reported.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming days. Security forces may erect checkpoints; localized disruptions are likely. Landmines could be present in border areas.

Additionally, Armenia has been persistently lobbying for the release of ethnic-Armenian prisoners of war following the major clashes in Nagorno-Karabakh in September-November 2020. While Azerbaijan has released several such prisoners, including through prisoner swaps, a significant number remain in Azerbaijani captivity. The issue occasionally prompts demonstrations and other street gatherings in Yerevan.

Context

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents. The CSTO has refrained from issuing a collective response; however, Russia has called on the opposing nations to form a joint commission to resolve longstanding border demarcation issues. Although little progress has been made in this regard, Armenia and Azerbaijan have previously indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. Direct conflict between the two nations is unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the Armenia-Azerbaijan border area until the situation has calmed. Exercise caution in such areas over the coming weeks, particularly along the Syunik Province, Armenia-Lachin District, Azerbaijan and Gegharkunik Province, Armenia-Kalbajar District, Azerbaijan borders. Only travel on routes that have been confirmed as free of landmines. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.