Armenia: Rival political groups to hold final election rallies in central Yerevan June 17-18 /update 3

Event

Rival political supporters are planning to rally in central Yerevan June 17-18 ahead of the June 20 snap election. Former Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has called on supporters from around the country to rally in Republic Square at 20:00 June 17. His opponents from the Armenia Bloc are planning to gather at the same location at 19:00 June 18.

Authorities will maintain a very high security posture near the protests; security forces will almost certainly respond quickly to any disruptive activists. The presence of large numbers of people and associated security measures could prompt localized disruptions in the capital. Both events could involve marches through the city center, which would exacerbate traffic and public transport disruptions. Opposing supporters could hold counterdemonstrations near any political rallies. Clashes are possible between demonstrators and security personnel, as well as between rival political activists should they gather in proximity.

Further gatherings are possible ahead of and immediately after the election. While the majority will likely take place in prominent squares and near government buildings in Yerevan, rallies and other demonstrations could occur in other cities nationwide, such as Gyumri, Vanadzor, and Vagharshapat; roadblock protests could prompt traffic disruptions on intercity highways at short notice.

Context

Pashinyan has been under intense public pressure to resign since the November 2020 peace deal, following conflict between the two countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The Armenian public essentially views the peace deal as an act of surrender to Azerbaijan. Seventeen political opposition parties, including Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party, and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutyun), have called for Pashinyan's resignation. On Feb. 25, senior army officers called for him to step down, prompting Pashinyan to allege the military was attempting a coup and dismiss the country’s most senior officer; the dismissal has been overturned by President Armen Sarksyan.

Advice

Exercise caution if operating in Armenia, especially Yerevan, ahead of June 20. Avoid any political demonstrations; keep away from areas where security forces appear to be deploying. Heed the instructions of local authorities. If violence erupts nearby, leave the area immediately and take refuge in a secure non-governmental building. Check the route status of intercity highways before setting out and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities.