Armenia, Azerbaijan: Tensions to remain high in shared border regions following crossborder fire July 28 /update 4

Event

Border tensions will remain heightened between Armenia and Azerbaijan through at least the end of 2021 following several border incidents in recent months. The Armenian Defense Ministry announced that three Armenian soldiers were killed and two wounded early July 28 during exchanges of fire near Sotk, Gegharkunik Province, which borders Azerbaijan's Kalbajar District; official Azeri sources report that two Azeri soldiers were wounded. Each side accuses the other of initiating the incident. A Russian-brokered local ceasefire reportedly came into effect at 10:00 July 28, though it is unclear whether both sides are in compliance.

The July 28 violence is the latest in a string of cross-border incidents. Previously, an Armenian soldier was reported killed in an exchange of fire with Azeri troops in the Yeraskh area, bordering Azerbaijan's Nakhchivan exclave, July 14. Armenian sources claim that the incident occurred after Azeri forces attempted to extend and fortify their positions into Armenian territory; the Azeri troops also reportedly suffered casualties.

Azeri officials have accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District and Azeri security forces previously arrested six Armenian service members who had reportedly infiltrated Azerbaijan territory near the ghost village of Yuxari Ayrim in the Kalbajar District early May 27. Armenian officials state the arrested troops were conducting border demarcation activities within Armenia's Gegharkunik Province. In addition, Armenian officials accused Azeri troops of crossing the border near the Sev Lich Sanctuary, approximately 10 km (6 miles) northwest of Goris in Syunik Province May 12. The sanctuary is shared between the two countries and Yerevan accused Azerbaijan of attempting to stake a claim to Armenian territory under the pretext of a demarcation issue. Azerbaijani troops reportedly advanced more than 3 km (2 miles) before Armenian forces were deployed to the area. Armenian troops conducted unspecified tactical maneuvers, prompting the withdrawal of Azerbaijan troops. Several other low-level incidents have been reported. No significant armed clashes have taken place.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming weeks. Security forces could erect checkpoints; localized disruptions are likely.

Armenia has been persistently lobbying for the release of ethnic Armenian prisoners of war following the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh in September-November 2020. While Azerbaijan has released several such prisoners, including through prisoner swaps, a significant number remain in Azeri captivity. The issue occasionally prompts demonstrations and other street gatherings in Yerevan.

Context

Following the ceasefire deal that ended the 2020 conflict, Baku assumed control of several regions adjacent to the Armenian provinces of Gegharkunik and Syunik. Further disputes over demarcation of the new de facto border are likely.

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents. The CSTO has refrained from issuing a collective response; however, Russia has called on the opposing nations to form a joint commission to resolve long-standing border demarcation issues. Although little progress has been made in this regard, Armenia and Azerbaijan have indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. A resumption of large-scale, direct conflict is unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has calmed. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming days, particularly along the Syunik Province, Armenia-Lachin District, Azerbaijan and Gegharkunik Province, Armenia-Kalbajar District, Azerbaijan borders. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.