Armenia, Azerbaijan: Tensions to remain high following cross-border violence Aug. 15-16 /update 5

Event

Border tensions will remain heightened between Armenia and Azerbaijan through at least the end of 2021 following several border incidents in recent months. The Armenian Defense Ministry announced that two Armenian soldiers were killed Aug. 16 after exchanging fire with Azeri troops who had crossed the border near Yeraskh, on the border with the Azerbaijan exclave of Nakhchivan. The incident follows the reported death of an Azeri soldier in the Sev Lich area of Syunik Province Aug. 15.

The Aug. 15-16 violence is the latest since July 28, when a Russian-brokered ceasefire came into effect following cross-border violence near Sotk, Gegharkunik Province, bordering Azerbaijan's Kalbajar District. Each side accuses the other of failing to comply with the ceasefire.

Armenia and Azerbaijan will likely maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming months. Security forces could erect checkpoints; localized disruptions are likely.

Context

Following the ceasefire deal that ended the 2020 conflict, Baku assumed control of several regions adjacent to the Armenian provinces of Gegharkunik and Syunik. Further disputes over demarcation of the border are likely.

An Armenian soldier was previously reported killed in the Yeraskh area on July 14. Armenian sources claim that the incident occurred after Azeri forces attempted to extend and fortify their positions into Armenian territory; the Azeri troops also reportedly suffered casualties. In addition, Azeri officials have accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District. Several other low-level incidents have been reported. No significant armed clashes have taken place.

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents. The CSTO has refrained from issuing a collective response; however, Russia has called on the opposing nations to form a joint commission to resolve long-standing border demarcation issues. Although little progress has been made in this regard, Armenia and Azerbaijan have indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. A resumption of large-scale, direct conflict is unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming months. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.