Armenia, Azerbaijan: Fatal clashes reported along de-facto border near Gegharkunik, Syunik provinces Nov. 16 /update 7

Event

Armenian government sources announced Nov. 16 that up to 15 of their soldiers have been killed in clashes with Azeri forces along the de-facto border between the two countries. At least 12 Armenian soldiers have been captured in the latest fighting. Azerbaijan also reports that two of its soldiers were wounded in the violence, which took place in the vicinity of Armenia’s Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces. Each side accuses the other of initiating the fighting and Armenia has called on the international community to demand that Azerbaijan troops vacate areas seized during the clashes.

The fighting appears to be the most serious in a series of border incidents in recent months. A Russian-brokered ceasefire came into effect July 28 following violence in Gegharkunik Province, though each side has since accused the other of repeatedly failing to comply with the truce.

Further violence is likely in the border area in the coming months. Armenia and Azerbaijan will probably maintain elevated security measures, possibly including increased troop deployments, along the shared border over the coming months. Security forces could erect checkpoints and temporarily close key routes leading to the border; localized disruptions are probable.

Context

Following the ceasefire deal that ended the 2020 conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Baku regained control of several regions adjacent to Gegharkunik and Syunik provinces. However, a dispute over the demarcation of the border between the two nations persists and there have been several fatal exchanges of fire along the border since mid-July. Azerbaijani officials have also accused Armenian troops of repeated attempts to cross the border in Kalbajar District.

As a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Armenia has repeatedly called on the bloc to discuss a collective response to the incidents; however, the CSTO has refrained from doing so. Russia is currently brokering talks between the opposing nations to resolve long-standing border demarcation issues. Armenia and Azerbaijan have indicated they are both committed to resolving the issue through dialogue. A resumption of large-scale, direct conflict is unlikely at this time.

Advice

Consider avoiding travel to the affected areas until the situation has stabilized. Exercise caution in Armenia-Azerbaijan border areas over the coming months. Allow additional time for travel, carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.