Bay of Campeche: Tropical Storm Karl tracking southwards in the Bay of Campeche, of Oct. 14 /update 3

Event

Tropical Storm Karl is tracking southward in the Bay of Campeche Oct. 14. As of 10:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 130 km (80 miles) northwest of Ciudad del Carmen, Tabasco State, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will weaken slightly as it tracks south-southwestward then southwestward Oct. 14 before making landfall near Paraiso in Tabasco State late Oct. 14-early Oct. 15. The system is expected to weaken into a tropical depression upon making landfall and will likely dissipate over southern Mexico by late Oct. 15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of Oct. 14, authorities have issued a tropical storm warning from Coatzacoalcos in Veracruz State along the coast to Sabancuy in Campeche State. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will produce rainfall totals of 5-12.5 cm (2-5 inches), with localized maximum rainfall totals of up to 25 cm (10 inches), over parts of Veracruz, Tabasco, northern Chiapas, and northern Oaxaca states through early Oct. 16. Mexico's National Meteorological Service (SMN) has also warned of heavy rainfall over parts of Campeche, Puebla, and Yucatan states. Flash and urban flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of higher terrain, are possible in affected areas. Tropical storm-strength winds may affect areas along Mexico's coast within the tropical storm warning area beginning late Oct. 14. Furthermore, swells are likely to affect portions of the Mexican coast over the coming days, producing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. The SMN has warned of winds gusting around 60-80 kph (37-50 mph) and waves of 1-3 meters (3-10 feet) along the coasts of Campeche, Tabasco, and Veracruz.

Authorities have closed the port of Frontera in Tabasco State as of Oct. 14 and reports indicate further port closures along the coasts of Campeche, Tamaulipas, and Veracruz states ahead of the approach of the storm. Civil protection officials have issued warning alerts across affected parts of Campeche, Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Veracruz states. Several emergency shelters have been established in those areas most at risk from the storm's impacts.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

National Hurricane Center
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)