South Africa: Adverse weather forecast over central regions through at least Nov. 13

Event

Thunderstorms and heavy rainfall are forecast across many parts of central South Africa through at least Nov. 13. The affected area includes parts of northern Eastern Cape, Free State, Gauteng, southwestern Limpopo, western Mpumalanga, North West, and eastern Northern Cape provinces. The most severe weather conditions Nov. 11 are expected over parts of central Free State and western and central North West provinces. Further stormy conditions are forecast across much of the affected area Nov, 12 and showers are expected to linger through Nov. 13. Storms may be accompanied by heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, and lightning. Heavy downpours could lead to flash and urban flooding in some areas. Water, sanitation, and power disruptions are possible.

As of Nov. 11, the South African Weather Service has issued the following weather warnings across the affected area:

• Orange Level 6 (of 10) Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: Parts of central Free State and western and central North West provinces.

• Yellow Level 2 Disruptive Rain and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: the rest of the affected area

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Storms and heavy rainfall have led to flooding and disruptions across many parts of the region in recent days. Authorities are providing assistance to around 300 people in the Moretele Local Municipality in North West Province due to damaged homes and infrastructure. The collapse of the Paardekraal Dam wall outside Rustenberg in North West Province has prompted authorities to warn residents in the area to avoid low-lying bridges due to the water discharge. Recovery operations following flooding are also ongoing in Msunduzi Municipality in Kwa-Zulu Natal Province and parts of the City of Tshwane Metropolitan Municipality in Gauteng Province.

Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Reconfirm the status of road routes before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

South African Weather Service