Pakistan: Protests possible into mid-January ahead of local government elections in Karachi and Hyderabad divisions slated to occur Jan. 15

Event

Protests are possible by opposition parties into mid-January in the lead-up to, during, and after officials plan to hold local government elections in Karachi and Hyderabad divisions on Jan. 15. In recent days, the Jamaat-e-Islami (JI) party held a protest march toward the chief minister's residence in Karachi to denounce the Election Commission of Pakistan's (ECP) delay in holding elections; officials may change the Jan. 15 election date with short notice, which may prompt additional civil unrest incidents in the affected areas.

Activists may hold rallies, sit-ins, protest marches, or shutdown strikes during the election period. Typical rally sites include ECP offices, polling stations, government buildings, press clubs, public squares or grounds, and main thoroughfares. Gathering sizes will likely vary by location; previous larger demonstrations have drawn thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly bolster security in the affected municipalities, especially near active voting and rally sites, as a precaution. Security personnel may establish roadblocks near polling stations and may quell opposition demonstrations with force. Clashes between activists and police, as well as between rival political party groups, are possible during rallies and near election centers on polling days. Minor bombings, shootings, acts of intimidation, and attacks targeting political party offices, candidates, and supporters could occur provincewide. Temporary suspension of public movement and telecommunication services is possible in case of significant violence. Localized business disruptions are also possible through at least Jan. 15.

Advice

Prepare for increased security - potentially including roadblocks and identification checks - in the affected districts until the end of the elections, especially on polling days. Avoid political party offices, political rallies, polling stations, and government buildings, where political unrest is most likely to occur. If a large mob begins forming, immediately leave the area or seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Allow additional time for travel near election events. Plan accordingly for possible localized business disruptions.