Mozambique Channel: Tropical Cyclone Freddy tracking west-northwest in Mozambique Channel as of early March 11 /update 7

Event

Tropical Cyclone Freddy has intensified and is tracking west-northwest in the Mozambique Channel and is approaching the coast of Mozambique early March 11. As of 05:00 CAT, the storm's center of circulation is approximately 530 km (329 miles) north-northwest of Europa Island. Freddy is forecast to strengthen further and track generally west-northwestward before making landfall over Zambezia Province, Mozambique, late March 11. After landfall, Freddy is expected to weaken to a moderate tropical storm as it tracks northwestward across Zambezia Province towards the Malawi border March 12-early March 13 before turning to track north-northwest and dissipating in far southern Malawi early March 14. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early March 11, Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued a red cyclone warning (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Manica, Nampula, Niassa, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia provinces. Daily rainfall totals of over 20 cm (8 inches) are likely across Zambezia and parts of Sofala, Tete, and Manica provinces through March 12, along with winds gusting up to 190 kph (118 mph). Daily rainfall totals of over 10 cm (4 inches) are possible in Nampula and Niassa provinces. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Freddy has impacted the region in recent weeks. In February, Freddy-related flooding and rainfall affected approximately 232,000 people in Mozambique. Authorities confirmed 10 fatalities and damage to infrastructure, including homes, roads, and schools. The Gaza, Inhambane, Manica, and Sofala provinces were worst affected. In Madagascar, Freddy impacted approximately 226,000 people, primarily in the Vatovavy Region. Authorities confirmed seven deaths across the country. The storm has mostly impacted agricultural production.

Since Freddy reentered the Mozambique Channel, authorities in Madagascar have confirmed 10 additional fatalities. The storm has affected over 72,000 people, with more than 16,000 people sheltering in 34 evacuation centers and almost 8,000 others displaced. Several roads are blocked, including portions of RNT 15, RNT 17A, and RNT 35.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger further flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)