Heightened security and lingering transport disruptions are likely to persist in Sudan in the coming days amid violent protests across the country. The protests erupted after Sudanese armed forces led by Army General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan staged a coup d'etat on Oct. 25. Al-Burhan declared a nationwide state of emergency and the dissolution of the transitional Sovereign Council. He further added that the military will form a non-partisan administration that will remain in power until elections occur in July 2023. The army also arrested several officials and put Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok under house arrest. As of Oct. 28, civil society groups have called for protests and acts of civil disobedience to denounce the coup and demand a return to civilian rule. The lingering protests will likely affect business operations, including freight services, across the country in the near term.
Sudan's Military Takes Power as Tensions with Civilian Leaders Boils
Members of the ethnic Beja Congress Council, located in eastern Sudan, which supported the coup, took to the streets to denounce the government's failure to address their grievances. Among them are abolishing the Eastern Sudan Track Protocol, incorporated in the 2020 Juba Peace Agreement, and calls for the unification of Kassala, Red Sea, and Al-Qadarif eastern states. As part of their ongoing protest movement, which started in mid-September, protesters have blocked key roads leading to other parts of the country, including Khartoum. They also blocked the port of Suakin and Port Sudan, as well as Port Sudan New International Airport (PZU) and Kassala Airport (KSL). The blockade of Port Sudan, the country’s main port has resulted in shortages of wheat, fuel, and medicines, prompting price hikes across the country. The Beja Congress, which supports the military, may encourage a de-escalation of protests, enabling a resumption of trade operations. However, it remains to be seen if the military will be able to properly address the Council’s complaints.
The tension between the TMC and FFC further widened following the failed coup on Sept. 21, when perpetrators unsuccessfully attempted to take over the state radio building in Omdurman and the military command headquarters in Khartoum. Authorities arrested several military officers and blamed supporters of former President al-Bashir for the failed coup. Following the incident, hundreds of thousands rallied in Khartoum on Sept. 30, demanding a return to a civilian-led government in the country.
The Oct. 25 coup and Hamdok's arrest prompted pro-civilian activists led by the Sudanese Professional Association (SPA) to hold further protests in Khartoum and several cities across the country. The army responded by deploying security forces and reportedly firing live ammunition and tear gas to disperse protesters in Khartoum, notably outside the military headquarters. As of Oct. 26, security personnel killed at least seven people and injured 80 others. Additionally, all roads and bridges leading to Khartoum remain closed, resulting in severe disruptions to supply chains to and from Khartoum. Internet and telephone disruptions persist, although the satellite-based Salnco and Manet internet networks reportedly remain functional. Flight operations at Khartoum International Airport (KRT) were initially suspended but later resumed on Oct. 27.
Near-term Outlook for Operating Environment in Sudan
Mass rallies in favor of a return to civilian rule are likely to continue in the coming weeks following activist call for additional demonstrations and roadblocks over the coming days across Sudan, including marches and protests on major thoroughfares and in front of government buildings, leading up to a "march of millions" Oct. 30. Counter-rallies by supporters of the army are also possible. Security forces will likely remain deployed across the capital and other cities to disperse protests, particularly near key government buildings and other strategic sites. Officials could impose additional movement restrictive measures in the coming days, including border closures and curfews. There is a heightened threat of violence at all related gatherings. Likewise, the volatile political environment may prompt armed opposition groups linked to civilian authorities to carry out attacks against the military-led government. Post-coup tensions and related threats of violence will continue to deteriorate the business environment in the near term. Strikes, unrest, and road blockades are likely to threaten business operations across the country; calls for civil disobedience could push businesses to a standstill.
The threat to the shipping sector is unlikely to lessen over the medium-term despite activists in the Beja Congress supporting the coup and cheering the removal of Hamdok. Any cessation of hostilities in eastern Sudan will depend on how and when the military addresses local concerns. The costs of mitigation measures, including escalating insurance costs, will continue to burden the industry. Long-lasting, wide-ranging periods of unrest will serve to increase anxiety. Investors and freight industry leaders may increasingly seek to reroute shipments through alternative ports in Egypt if supply chain security does not improve in Sudan, adversely impacting the country's economy.
Threat Mitigation Summary
Security managers and companies seeking to safeguard their supply chain should identify all threats and vulnerable locations. All risks should be reviewed and documented, from widespread acts of civil unrest to violent clashes at various locations.
- Adequate perimeter fencing and barriers, out-of-normal hours alarm systems, lighting, access control, CCTV monitoring with a clear line of sight, electronic access control on-site, and 24-hour security should be considered for all storage/warehouse sites.
- All machine systems should have an Uninterrupted Power Supply (UPS) to account for power outages. Maintenance contracts for all security systems are advised.
- Conduct regular/annual review of on-site security measures with trusted security partners.
- Conduct regular security assessments of freight transport routes, identifying high-risk areas/hotspots and travel times, and consider risks aligned with the general political and security environment.
- Provide security awareness and defensive driving training for transporters.
- Ensure freight cargo is secured by using vehicle tracking technology.
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