France finds its military in a difficult position following the forced resignation of Mali's transitional civilian leadership, May 24, by leaders of the country's August 2020 coup.
Multiple Coups Prompt France to Suspend Joint Miliitary Operations
Mali is in an extremely precarious situation. Between political elite infighting in the capital and increasingly deadly militant violence in the far north and central provinces, the situation shows no signs of improving. This will provide militants even more room to maneuver and commit attacks in the weeks and months ahead.
France Suspends Joint Military Operations Following May 24 Coup d'État
Mali’s poor political and security environments will almost certainly degrade further in the wake of its May 24 coup d’état -- the second of its kind in less than a year. The move, which involved military leaders forcing the resignations of the transitional president, prime minister, and defense minister, was widely condemned by Mali’s main international partners. Since then, the coup’s leader, former military junta leader Colonel Assimi Goita, declared himself the country’s new transitional president. In retaliation, France – Mali’s main security partner – suspended joint military operations with the country on June 4.
Impacts to Mali's Military and Security Environment
Paris’s decision to cut ties with Mali’s military will have wide-ranging consequences for the country’s security. France has maintained thousands of troops across the militant-plagued Sahel region, most notably in Mali, as a part of its Operation Barkhane counterterrorism strategy following its 2013 intervention. Consequently, the sudden withdrawal of French cooperation will open a vacuum for Al-Qaeda and Islamic State-linked militant groups to fill. This is because Mali’s military remains highly fractious and suffers from widespread and debilitating corruption, chronic shortages of equipment, poor training, and low morale. As a result, militants will seek to take advantage of the lack of superior French military support, including its intelligence, and air and ground support capabilities, for Malian troops in the field to commit more deadly attacks.
Additionally, as Malian troops are so often poorly trained, they are more prone to committing human rights abuses against civilians in the north and central provinces. The removal of French support during Malian military operations will likely increase the chances of abuses against civilians occurring. These actions will therefore worsen the already negative perceptions of Mali’s armed forces in the country’s far-flung territories, providing firepower for militant propaganda and increasing their ability to recruit from disaffected populations.
Plans for Transitioning to Democratic Elections Vulnerable
As political leaders in Bamako squabble over the political transition process, the country’s deep systemic problems, including its endemic corruption and poor economic growth, will continue for the foreseeable future. This will pose notable risks for regional security and business continuity. Indeed, it remains to be seen if the currently unstable political situation will result in the failure of Mali’s government to transition to democratic elections slated for February 27, 2022. Thus far the country’s coup leaders have publicly promised to maintain the current election timetable. However, reports suggest there is mounting pressure from within the armed forces to further delay the elections.
Should such a postponement be announced, this would set in motion an increasingly volatile situation. To put it simply: if Mali’s political elites fail to get the transition back on track, it is almost certain that more widespread civil unrest will occur. Indeed, a revival of large demonstrations already happened on June 4 as the opposition civil society group Mouvement du 5 Juin-Rassemblement des Forces Patriotiques (M5-RFP) gathered thousands of protesters to demonstrate in Bamako in favor of the political transition back to democracy. If authorities announce this, elections will be delayed beyond the current calendar, debilitating strikes and civil society mobilizations would almost certainly take place to pressure authorities to return to the democratic transition.
Electoral Institutional Weakness Pose Notable Risks to Regional Security and Business Continuity
Consequently, should such a scenario unfold, businesses and personnel operating in Bamako and other major urban areas would be at greater risk due to renewed violent clashes between security forces and protesters. This will be especially likely in Bamako, home to the government and many buildings and locations of symbolic value such as Independence Square. Protesters may also renew road blockages by using burning tires and other forms of makeshift blockades. It should be noted that Malian police forces, much like their military counterparts, suffer from widespread corruption and lacking training and equipment, meaning that they are prone to using live ammunition for crowd control, greatly escalating the chances of casualties occurring for protesters and bystanders.
Given Mali’s ongoing political power struggles, it is likely that the country will continue to flounder with its deepening political and security crises. As such, the situation will remain volatile and continue to pose difficulties to businesses continuity in the country, requiring heightened vigilance for businesses and personnel operating in Mali for the next 30-90 days.
Related Intelligence Alerts
Warning | 11 June 2021 | 03:24 AM UTC | Mali: Unidentified gunmen abduct eight aid workers in Ouattagouna, Gao Region, June 8
Warning | 8 June 2021 | 05:26 AM UTC | Mali: Demonstration in support of kidnapped French journalist to take place in Bamako June 8
Warning | 7 June 2021 | 04:48 AM UTC | Mali: Colonel Assimi Goita to be inaugurated as transitional president in Bamako June 7
For access to Crisis24 risk intelligence alerts and country reports, subscribe here.
