Tensions are unlikely to abate unless Hamas and other militant groups cease rocket fire into Israel’s major cities.
Authored by Fahim Masoud
Despite the fact that recent reports of an incursion by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) into the Gaza Strip have proven to be incorrect, such a move remains entirely possible over the coming days or weeks if Gaza-based militants persist in attacking Israeli cities with rockets and missiles. With hostilities having escalated into the most intense cross-border fire between Israeli and Palestinian forces in almost a decade, a ground operation of this nature could ultimately rival Operation Protective Edge in 2014, an IDF campaign into Gaza which lasted seven weeks.
Tensions between the IDF and Gaza-based militants – primarily Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) – have dramatically increased since May 10, 2021, with a persistent barrage of Gazan rocket and missile attacks causing major disruptions in Israeli cities, as well as killing at least 10 Israelis and wounding dozens of others.
Israeli airstrikes, on the other hand, have killed over 180 Palestinians, including several prominent militant leaders. After launching more than 150 rockets against areas in southern and central Israel on May 10, Hamas offered a ceasefire with the Israeli government; however, the Israeli government rejected the proposal, and both sides continued to engage in belligerent rhetoric in addition to hostile actions.
On early May 14, 2021, Israel announced that air and ground troops had begun attacking in the Gaza Strip; IDF international spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Jonathan Conricus initially confirmed to a Wall Street Journal reporter that there were Israeli ground troops in the Gaza Strip. However, the IDF soon retracted that statement and clarified that its troops had not entered the territory, attributing the confusion to an internal communication issue.
Israeli military officials subsequently clarified that IDF units had, rather, begun using artillery and tanks to fire on militant targets in the Gaza Strip from within Israeli territory along the Israel-Gaza border. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has asserted that his country’s military is exacting a heavy toll on Hamas forces and the operation will continue for as long as needed. Netanyahu has also warned that the air and ground campaign is just the beginning. The May 14 escalation came in the wake of Israel’s war cabinet approving plans to expand the initial bombing campaign.
It is highly unlikely that the Israeli leadership will cease the current military campaign unless Hamas and other militant groups cease their rocket attacks. The IDF will almost certainly escalate its actions and could ultimately deploy to the Gaza Strip in an attempt to neutralize militant groups’ capacity to launch attacks against Israel. The Israeli government appears intent not only on defeating Hamas militarily in this current bout of conflict, but also deterring it from engaging in similar behavior in the future.
Of course, violence between Gaza-based militant groups and Israel is certainly nothing new. The IDF has regularly targeted Hamas and other militant groups when they have threatened Israel’s security. In July 2014, the IDF launched Operation Protective Edge to restore security to communities in the nation’s southern region following hundreds of rocket attacks by non-Gazan militants. However, the current bout of violence has caught the Israeli public by surprise in two ways.
On the one hand, militant groups have demonstrated greater capacity to target major Israeli cities and cause widespread disruption to critical infrastructure, including prompting the closure of Ben Gurion Airport (TLV). But just as important, the widespread social instability and unrest that have occurred across cities in Israel with mixed Arab-Jewish populations represent an atypical phenomenon.
This communal violence is unprecedented and will present serious social and security challenges in the long run if it goes unhindered. Since tensions began on May 10, rival mobs from both communities have engaged in rioting, arson, rock throwing, acts of vandalism, and assault.
Origins of Recent Tensions Between Israel and Gaza Militants
The recent escalation of violence began following demonstrations against an Israeli court decision to evict dozens of Palestinians from their homes in East Jerusalem’s Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood to make way for Israeli residents. Palestinian activists allege that the forced evictions are part of an effort by Israeli settlers to remove Palestinians from East Jerusalem.
The case of Sheikh Jarrah has garnered widespread attention and prompted violent demonstrations in Jerusalem’s Old City. The unrest, initially concentrated in Sheikh Jarrah, deteriorated late May 7 when the Israeli police in riot gear stormed the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound during evening prayers, injuring some 170 Palestinians. Moreover, at least another 550 Palestinians were injured May 8-10 amid further clashes in the vicinity of the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound. Israeli security forces used tear gas, rubber bullets, stun grenades, and other riot control measures to disperse demonstrators.
Hamas issued an ultimatum demanding that all Israeli troops leave the Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood and the Temple Mount by 18:00 May 10 following the violence. After the deadline expired with no resolution, Gazan militants fired a barrage of over 150 rocket and mortar rounds toward communities in Israel's Southern District, along the border with the Gaza Strip, and in Jerusalem.
The IDF responded to the rocket attack with retaliatory airstrikes against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip; the Gazan Ministry of Health alleged that the airstrikes struck residential areas in the territory, killing at least 20 people and wounding some 65 others. The conflict continued to escalate as Gazan militants fired additional rockets into southern and central Israel, including Tel Aviv.
Impact to Business Continuity
The deterioration in security conditions will continue to pose significant challenges and threats to businesses operating in Israel and in the Gaza Strip for the duration of the hostilities. Business travel disruptions are almost certain, as authorities suspend, cancel, or divert flights at Ben Gurion Airport (TLV) amid persistent rocket barrages from Gaza into southern and central Israel, including the vicinity of Tel Aviv.
Authorities began redirecting incoming flights slated to land at TLV to Ramon International Airport (ETM) near Eilat early May 13 due to the evolving security situation. Numerous airlines have canceled or delayed scheduled flights amid the ongoing violence. While cargo, ferry, and general aviation flights have continued landing at TLV for the time being, further rocket attacks into the area could force the suspension of these operations as well, potentially resulting in supply chain disruptions.
Municipalities across southern and central Israel have restricted business activity in recent days by only permitting businesses with accessible bomb shelters to operate. However, there have also been sporadic reports of missile launches out of Lebanon and Syria targeting Israel’s northern region.
While the incidents in northern Israel have been less impactful than those elsewhere in the country, the triggering of air raid sirens anywhere nationwide can still force companies to temporarily suspend operations at facilities in affected areas with no advance notice as workers seek shelter until the danger has passed and authorities give the all-clear. Business will also likely experience increased employee absenteeism.
Widespread clashes occurring between members of the Jewish and Arab communities across Israel, primarily in mixed-population towns, will also continue to produce localized ground transport disruptions, as well as threats to the physical security of business assets and personnel situated or operating in affected areas. Authorities could also impose curfews or other emergency measures in effort to restore order in impacted communities.
Since unrest first erupted on May 10, violent demonstrations and riots have occurred in a number of towns including Tiberias, Haifa, Jaffa, Bat Yam, Acre, and Lod. Widespread incidents of vandalism and arson have been reported targeting synagogues, mosques, local businesses, and vehicles, among other properties. Rioters have also reportedly thrown stones and firebombs in clashes with security forces. In Lod, communal violence became so pronounced that hundreds of Border Police deployed to the area following a request by the mayor for military assistance. Authorities also declared a state of emergency and a nightly curfew in Lod amid effort to quell the unrest.
Current Hostilities Could Escalate to Full-Blown War in Gaza Strip
It has been decades since Israel has experienced a series of events that rivals the security situation in which the country now finds itself. As a point of comparison, during 2014, Hamas launched 4,000 rockets during its 50-day conflict with Israel; since May 10, however, Hamas has expended nearly 3,000 rockets.
The current hostilities could easily devolve into a full-blown war in the Gaza Strip. Reports indicate that the Egyptian government has proposed a one-year ceasefire, which the Israelis have turned down. Despite the complete air, sea, and land blockade imposed against the Gaza Strip by Egypt and Israel since 2007, Hamas and the PIJ have managed not only to increase their rocket and missile arsenals, but also to elevate the sophistication and effectiveness of their weaponry.
Hamas has also reportedly managed to obtain the Kornet anti-tank missiles, which the Lebanese Hizballah militant group deployed effectively against IDF tanks in 2006. Any IDF ground incursion into the Gaza Strip will come at a high cost for both sides; while that contingency remains on the table Israel will likely exhaust all other options it deems reasonable before exercising it.
Additionally, conflict could emerge on new fronts. Hizballah fighters and sympathizers have been gathering on the Israel-Lebanon border since May 14; Jordanian protesters have appeared on the Israel-Jordanian border since then also to show solidarity with the Palestinians. Tensions are already at their peak between Syria and Israel. Iran, Israel’s arch foe and most formidable enemy in the Middle East, is already engaged in a serious geopolitical rivalry with the latter.
Moreover, Israel and Iran have recently upped the ante by targeting each other's commercial vessels in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, Mediterranean Sea, and Gulf of Oman on several occasions since late February. Attacks by Israel’s enemies could increase in the coming days and weeks as tensions with Gaza militants persist.
The most recent cycle of violence between the Israelis and Palestinians will likely end within days or weeks. Israel will have the final word as it wants to ensure it has caused enough damage to militant groups and to demonstrate that it will not back down in the face of threats from Hamas and the PIJ. However, neither side will fully achieve their goals.
The IDF’s sole objective remains elimination of the rocket attacks from the Gaza Strip. Hamas is pushing for the existing blockade to be lifted, which is a deal-breaker for Israel. Tensions will eventually subside, but the threat of a new conflict will always remain on the horizon.
Click on the following intelligence alerts for full analysis:
Israel: Gazan militants continue to launch projectiles toward southern region of Israel, May 18
Israel, PT: Israeli airstrike destroys building housing international media offices in Gaza City May 15 /update 4
