08 Jun 2022 | 09:17 AM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least June 11
Severe weather forecast across much of Mexico through at least June 11. Possible flooding and associated disruptions.
Event
A combination of weather systems is forecast to bring adverse conditions across much of Mexico through at least June 11. Heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are forecast over parts of southeastern Mexico June 8-11, with isolated showers, thunderstorms, strong winds, and extreme temperatures also expected in many other parts of the country.
A tropical wave is expected to move over southeastern regions of the country June 8-9 and could generate an area of instability with a probability of cyclonic development to the south of the coasts of Guerrero and Oaxaca coasts June 10-11. The system will bring thunderstorms and heavy rainfall across much of southeastern Mexico June 8-11. Daily rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are possible in parts of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southern Veracruz June 8 and southern Chiapas and coastal and northern highland areas of Oaxaca June 9. Totals of 5-7.5 (2-3 inches) are possible in parts of Tabasco June 8, Veracruz and Guerrero June 9, coastal Oaxaca and Chiapas June 10-11, and coastal Guerrero June 11. The intense rainfall could lead to rising river levels and flooding in low-lying areas, as well as triggering landslides on unstable slopes.
A low pressure channel over the center of the country will also likely bring less severe rainfall and thunderstorms over the northwest, center, west, and east of the country June 8-11. The storms may be accompanied by hail in parts of Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, and Sinaloa states. An anticyclonic circulation in the middle levels of the atmosphere will lead to extremely high temperatures across much of Mexico in the coming days, especially in the northwest, north, and northeast of the country. Temperatures above 45 C (113 F) are possible in parts of Baja California, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, Sonora, Sinaloa, and Tamaulipas states. Strong winds are also expected in many northern and coastal regions, and could be accompanied by dust storms in some northern states.
Some areas of southern Mexico are still recovering from the impacts of Hurricane Agatha, which made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane over coastal Oaxaca State late May 30, bringing rough seas, strong winds, and heavy rainfall that triggered flooding and landslides in Oaxaca and some neighboring states. Authorities in Oaxaca reported 11 fatalities associated with the storm and tens of thousands of people lost power in Oaxaca and Veracruz. Flooding and landslides also damaged several roads and bridges in the region.
Hazardous Conditions
The active weather systems could produce rounds of heavy precipitation, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across parts of Mexico in the coming days. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash and areal flooding in some areas. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Power outages could occur throughout the affected areas.
Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports across affected regions.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
