23 Jun 2022 | 03:05 PM UTC
Mexico: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least June 26
Severe weather is forecast across much of Mexico through at least June 26. Possible flooding, landslides, and associated disruptions.
Event
A combination of weather systems is forecast to bring adverse conditions across much of Mexico through at least June 26. Tropical Storm Celia remains well off the country's western coast but will bring rough seas and strong winds to western coastal areas in the coming days. As of early June 23, Celia's center of circulation was located around 395 km (245 miles) south-southwest of Manzanillo in Colima State. Forecast models indicate the system will continue to track generally west-northwestward in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane late June 24 or early June 25.
Moisture from Celia is expected to interact with a tropical wave located over Guerrero State and a low-pressure channel over the north and center of the country to bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over much of the country through June 26. Thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong winds gusts, lightning, and hail storms. The heaviest rainfall is expected over parts of Nayarit, and Jalisco states June 23. Rainfall totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) are possible in these areas and could trigger flooding in low-lying areas of the affected states and landslides on unstable slopes. Winds gusting 70-80 kph (43-50 mph) and waves of 3-5 meters (10-16 feet) are expected along the coasts of Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacán June 23. Wind gusts of 60-70 kph (37-43 mph) and waves of 2-3 meters (7-10 feet) are expected along the coasts of western Guerrero June 23, Jalisco June 24-25. Colima June 24, and Nayarit and Baja California Sur June 25.
An anticyclonic circulation in the middle levels of the atmosphere will lead to extremely high temperatures across northern and some eastern regions in the coming days. Temperatures over 45 C (113 F) are expected over parts of Baja California June 23-26 and Sonora June 23. Temperatures between 40-45 C (104-113 F) are expected over parts of Baja California Sur and Sinaloa June 23 and Sonora June 24-26.
Hazardous Conditions
The active weather systems could produce rounds of heavy precipitation, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity across parts of Mexico in the coming days. Heavy rainfall could trigger flash and areal flooding in some areas. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil. Power outages could occur throughout the affected areas.
In areas where there is an extended period of oppressive heat, dry conditions may produce ideal circumstances for wildfire growth. Heatwaves also pose a threat to vulnerable groups - such as the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with respiratory illnesses - due to the increased possibility of heat stroke or heat exhaustion during prolonged exposure to high temperatures. These health risks could also extend to relatively healthy individuals during significant heatwave events. In addition to significantly impacting athletes and those who work outdoors, high temperatures can cause problems for people using mass transit. The lack of air conditioning and cramped vehicles during rush hour may lead to some passengers being hospitalized for dehydration.
Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports across affected regions.
Very high temperatures may warp rail tracks and force passenger and freight trains to operate at reduced speeds. Road surface damage is also possible, and overheated vehicles may worsen traffic problems in urban areas where congestion is already a problem. High temperatures could lead to an increased demand for electricity, which might trigger localized brownouts or blackouts, exacerbating hazardous conditions when air conditioning is no longer possible.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
During heatwaves, remain indoors in air conditioning when possible. If outdoor activities are necessary, frequently rest in shaded areas; avoid activity during the hottest times of the day. Stay well-hydrated by drinking plenty of fluids. Avoid alcoholic beverages, which are dehydrating; drink water that is bottled or has been boiled. Wear loose-fitting, light-colored clothing. Cotton fabrics are more cooling than synthetics. Promptly seek medical attention if signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke develop.
