Philippine Sea: Typhoon Doksuri tracking west-northwestward east of the Philippines as of early July 24 /update 2

Event

Typhoon Doksuri (known in the Philippines as Egay) has intensified and is tracking west-northwestward in the Philippine Sea east of the Philippines early July 24. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 596 km (371 miles) east of Manila, Philippines. Forecast models indicate that the storm will continue tracking generally northwestward and intensify further through July 25 before weakening slightly and making a close approach to the Babuyan Islands, Cagayan Province, Philippines early July 26. Doksuri is forecast to weaken slightly after passing the islands and entering the South China Sea, though maintaining typhoon conditions, before passing south of Taiwan early July 27. The system will likely weaken further and make landfall as a typhoon over Fujian Province in mainland China early July 28. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 24, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2 across eastern Luzon and northeastern Northern Samar Province and Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1 across the rest of northern and central Philippines. Rainfall totals of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) are forecast over Cagayan, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, and northern Sorsogon provinces through early July 25. After which, the rainfall is forecast to increase, with more than 20 cm (8 inches) likely in Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, northern Apayao, Abra, and northern La Union provinces, with lesser amounts across the rest of Luzon through early July 26.

An Extreme General Flood Advisory (second-highest level on a four-tier scale) is in place for the Bicol Region while Severe General Flood Advisories have been issued for parts of the Calabarzon, Mimaropa, and Western Visayas regions. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)