Philippine Sea: Typhoon Doksuri tracking west-northwestward northeast of the Philippines as of late July 25 /update 4

Event

Typhoon Doksuri (known in the Philippines as Egay) is tracking west-northwestward in the eastern Philippine Sea northeast of the Philippines early July 25. As of 11:00 PHT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 517 km (321 miles) north-northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will track northwestward through the Luzon Strait and make a close approach to the Babuyan Islands, Cagayan Province, in the coming hours. Doksuri is forecast to weaken slightly after passing the islands and entering the South China Sea, though maintaining typhoon conditions, before passing southwest of Taiwan late July 26-early July 27. The system will likely weaken further and make landfall as a typhoon over western Fujian Province in mainland China late July 27 before slowly turning to track northwards across Jiangxi and eastern Hubei provinces through July 29 and dissipating over eastern Henan Province July 30. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of July 25, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 5: Babuyan Islands.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 4: Parts of northern Cagayan Province.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 3: The rest of Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and parts of northeastern Isabela, northern Kalinga, and northern Abra provinces.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 2: The rest of Abram Isabela and Kalinga, Quirino, Ilocos Sur, Mountain, Ifugao, and parts of central and northern Aurora, northeastern Nueva Vizcaya, northern Benguet, and northern La Union provinces.

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1: Across much of the rest of Luzon.

Rainfall totals of more than 20 cm (8 inches) are forecast in northern Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Apayao, and Abra provinces through late July 26. Lesser amounts of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are likely in Benguet, northern La Union, and western Kalinga provinces and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) in Isbela, northern Zambales, and the rest of Cagayan provinces, as well as the rest of Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, northern Ilocos Sur, western Apayao, and western Abra provinces late July 26-27, with lesser amounts of 5-20 cm (2-4 inches) likely in Benguet, La Union Pangasinan, western Kalinga, Mountain, and the rest of Apayao provinces. Storm surge of more than 3 meters (10 feet) is forecast in Batanes, Cagayan (including the Babuyan Islands), Isabela, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur provinces; flooding in low-lying and exposed coastal areas is possible.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau has issued a typhoon warning for Taitung, Pingtung, and the Hengchun Peninsula on land and for most coastal waters. Orange torrential rain warnings (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) have been issued for Hualien, Taitung, and mountainous areas of Yilan counties, as well as yellow heavy rain warnings for Pingtung and the rest of Yilan counties. Onshore strong wind advisories have been issued across northern, southern, and most island coastal areas.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued an orange (the second highest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are expected in coastal areas of northeastern Fujian and southeastern Zhejiang late July 25-26, as well as strong winds in the South China Sea. Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Disruptions are ongoing across parts of the Philippines late July 25 as the storm passes to the northeast. More than 2,000 people have been evacuated in Bacolod City in Negros Occidental Province. Authorities have reported that nearly 17,000 people across Bicol, Calabarzon, Ilocos, Northern Mindanao, and Western Visayas regions have been affected by the storm as of late July 25.

Authorities preemptively evacuated 348 people across the Western Visayas Region and 51 people in Catanduanes Province. Residents in low-lying areas of Angeles City in Pampanga Province have been pre-emptively evacuated and officials have also advised residents in high-risk areas of Camarines Sur Province to evacuate. Sea travel across northern and central Philippines is suspended; more than 4,700 passengers in Bicol, Calabarzon, Eastern Visayas, Western Visayas, and Mimaropa regions are stranded as of July 25. Airlines have canceled flights connecting Manila with Busuanga, Coron, El Nido, Laoag, and Romblon July 25. Authorities have suspended classes in parts of northern and central Philippines July 25.

In Taiwan, ferry services between Pingtung’s Donggang and Siaoliouciou Island, Taitung and Orchid and Green Islands, and Kenting and Orchid Island have been suspended from July 25 through July 27. Operators have warned ferry services and flights between mainland Taiwan and Lienchiang County are likely to be suspended during the passing of the storm. Some national parks have been closed and several outdoor sporting and other recreational events have been suspended.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau