Philippine Sea: Typhoon Saola is tracking south-southwestward across the Philippine Sea, northeast of Luzon, Philippines, as of early Aug. 27 /update 3

Event

Typhoon Saola (known in the Philippines as Goring) has intensified and is tracking south-southwestward across the Philippine Sea, northeast of Luzon, Philippines, early Aug. 27. As of 05:00 PHT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 359 km (223 miles) northeast of Manila, Philippines.

Forecast models indicate the system will remain northeast of Luzon as it strengthens into a super typhoon while gradually turning in a circle to track northwestward through Aug, 29. The storm is forecast to weaken slightly as it makes a sharp turn to track southeastwards then eastward through early Aug. 28. The system is forecast to make another sharp turn to track northeastward while strengthening slightly through late Aug. 28. Saola is forecast to strengthen into a super typhoon as it turns to track north-northwestwards early Aug. 29 before tracking northwestwards and make a close approach to Batanes Province, Philippines, early Aug. 30. Saola is likely to weaken slightly and make landfall over far southern Taiwan early Aug. 31 before weakening over the South China Sea and make another landfall as a typhoon over far southern Fujian Province, China, early Sept. 1. The storm's track and intensity forecast remains somewhat uncertain, and the system may change accordingly over the coming days.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geographical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued the following Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals (TCWS):

• TCWS 3: far eastern Isabela Province

• TCWS 2: eastern Isabela, eastern mainland Cagayan, and far northern Aurora provinces

• TCWS 1: the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, eastern Benguet, eastern Ilocos Norte, northeastern Nueva Ecija, and northern and central Aurora provinces as well as Polillo and Calaguas islands.

PAGASA has also warned of more than 20 cm (8 inches) of rainfall across far eastern Isabela Province, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across eastern mainland Cagayan and Isabela provinces, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over the Ilocos Region as well as Apayao, Abra, Benguet, northern Aurora, eastern Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of mainland Cagayan, and the rest of Isabela provinces Aug. 27. Another 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall is likely over eastern Babuyan Islands and mainland Cagayan Province Aug. 28. Authorities may issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days. Weather warnings could remain active even after the system's immediate threat has diminished, as some areas may still be highly susceptible to rain-induced hazards.

Authorities in Cagayan Province have begun preemptive evacuations in areas prone to flooding and landslides. Reports indicate some damage to houses in Gonzaga Municipality.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration