20 Oct 2023 | 09:46 AM UTC
North Pacific Ocean: Hurricane Norma tracking north-northwestward off the western coast of Mexico as of early Oct. 20 /update 1
Hurricane Norma tracking north-northwestward in the North Pacific Ocean, early Oct. 20. Close approach to Baja California Sur late Oct. 21.
Event
Hurricane Norma is maintaining Category 3 hurricane strength and is tracking north-northwestward over the eastern North Pacific Ocean early Oct. 20. As of 03:00 MDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 455 km (280 miles) west of Manzanillo, Colima State.
Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 2 hurricane as it continues to track generally north-northwestward off the western coast of Mexico Oct. 20. The system is then expected to weaken further into a Category 1 hurricane as it tracks north-northeastward and then northeastward towards the Baja California Peninsula Oct. 21. The center of the storm is forecast to pass just to the southwest of the southern tip of the Peninsula late Oct. 21 as either a weak Category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. Norma is then expected to weaken further as it tracks east-northeastward across the southern Gulf of California Oct. 22-early Oct. 23 and is forecast to weaken into a tropical depression either shortly before or after making landfall over Sinaloa State near Eldorado Oct. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.
As of early Oct. 20, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:
Hurricane Warning: Baja California Sur State from Todos Santos to Los Barriles.
Tropical Storm Warning: Baja California Sur State north of Los Barriles to La Paz and north of Todos Santos to Santa Fe.
Tropical Storm Watch: Las Islas Marias.
Hurricane conditions are expected in the watch area by early Oct. 21, with tropical storm conditions beginning late Oct. 20. Tropical storm conditions are also expected in the tropical storm warning areas from Oct. 21 and are possible in Las Islas Marias Oct. 20. Forecast models indicate rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) with localized maximums up to 37.5 cm (15 inches) across far southern Baja California Sur state through Oct. 22. A storm surge could produce coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning area. Large and destructive waves near the coast will likely accompany the surge. Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of Mexico's southwestern coast and Baja California Sur. Swells will spread northward along the west coast toward the Baja California peninsula over the coming days. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Maritime authorities have closed the ports of La Cruz de Huanacaxtle and San Blas in Nayarit State, Barra de Navidad in Jalisco State, and Manzanillo in Colima State to smaller vessels. Schools have been in Los Cabos and La Paz municipalities in Baja California Sur State on Oct. 20.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
