Taiwan: Typhoon Koinu tracking west-northwestward across far southern Taiwan early Oct. 5 /update 4

Event

Typhoon Koinu (known in the Philippines as Jenny) is tracking west-northwestward across far southern Taiwan early Oct. 5 following landfall earlier in the day. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation is approximately 352 km (219 miles) south-southwest of Taipei, Taiwan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken as it tracks westward across the South China Sea and approach Guangdong Province, China, late Oct. 6. Koinu is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks southwestward just offshore of the coast of Guangdong Oct. 7-9 before weakening further into a tropical depression as it approaches Hainan Province Oct. 10. Uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days

Officials in Taiwan have issued various wind and rain warnings. The most severe impact is forecast east and south of the island. A full list of advisories are available here. The approaching storm and adverse conditions have caused more than 100 flight cancellations, 42 of which are international flights, Oct. 3-5; ferry services to outlying islands are suspended. The high-speed rail remains unaffected. Taiwan's fire department states that at least 190 people are injured; some buildings are slightly damaged. All administrative regions except for Taipei, New Taipei, Keelung, and Taoyuan cities announced bank, school, and government office closures Oct. 5.

The Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has issued Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) 3 for northern Batanes, TCWS 2 for the rest of Batanes, and TCWS 1 over Babuyan Islands, northern mainland Cagayan, northern Apayao, and northern Ilocos Norte provinces. Heavy rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) is forecast over Batanes through noon Oct. 6.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger additional localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also likely to persist. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)
Hong Kong Observatory
Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration