East Asia: Transport disruptions likely regionwide through at least Feb. 18 due to Lunar New Year Celebrations

Hundreds of millions of people will travel throughout East Asia and in parts of Southeast Asia during the Lunar New Year holiday season, prompting transport and business disruptions through at least Feb. 18. In 2024, while the Lunar New Year falls on Feb. 10, observance varies by location; public observances will occur before and after the main holiday in some countries.

Lunar New Year is the most important annual festival in predominately ethnic-Chinese (China, Singapore) and Vietnamese communities. It is also widely observed in Indonesia, Malaysia, North and South Korea, and, to a lesser extent, Brunei, the Philippines, and Thailand. A surge in travel and closure of businesses, caused by people returning to their hometowns for holiday observances, will almost certainly result in disruptions from early February.

Lunar New Year Observances (Local Name)

• Brunei (Chinese New Year): Feb. 10

• Mainland China (Spring Festival): Feb. 10-17

• Hong Kong (Lunar New Year): Feb. 10-13

• Indonesia (Imlek): Feb. 10

• Macau (Lunar New Year): Feb. 10-12

• Malaysia (Chinese New Year): Feb. 10-12

• Mongolia (Tsagaan Sar): Feb. 10-12

• North Korea (Seollal): Feb. 10

• Philippines (Araw ng Bagong Taon ng mga Tsino): Feb. 9-10

• Singapore (Chinese New Year): Feb. 10-12

• South Korea (Seollal): Feb. 9-12

• Thailand (Chinese New Year): Feb. 10

• Vietnam (Tet): Feb. 8-14

Use of private vehicles will spike dramatically, typically resulting in significant congestion on national highways, as well as a sharp increase in accidents. Traffic restrictions such as road closures and diversions are also likely in urban centers, such as in Vietnam's Hanoi, where police will ban pedestrian traffic along Sword Lake and Old Quarter Feb. 9-23. The high volume of passengers also routinely affects rail, bus, and airline networks, leading to delays. Airlines and railways will probably add additional services to meet the high demand, though overbooking may be a problem.

In China, nine billion passenger trips will likely be made across this period, of which 80 percent is estimated to be self-driving road trips. Areas likely to face the highest congestion include developed coastal and railway interchange cities such as Beijing, Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Shenzhen prior to Feb. 10, where traffic will likely flow from developed urban areas to less developed rural areas. After the holidays, heavy passenger outflow will likely concentrate around the regions of Chengdu, Chongqing, Hefei , Nanchang, and Wuhan. Officials in China, including authorities in Beijing, Hebei, Tianjin, and Sichuan, have also announced the ban of dangerous goods transport vehicles along highways 00:01 Feb. 9-23:59 Feb. 17.

Major airports, including Pudong (PVG) and Hongqiao (SHA) Airports in Shanghai, Beijing Capital International Airport (PEK), and Beijing Daxing International Airport (PKX), are expected to face up to 60 percent increase in passenger traffic. Flight disruptions have also been reported in Vietnam, with airlines announcing last-minute flight timing changes. Shipping disruptions and delivery delays are also common during the holiday, mainly due to widespread business closures in China.

Poor weather and bouts of heavy air pollution, which are common in northern China and other parts of Northeast Asia during the winter months, could intensify disruptions.

Petty crime tends to increase before and during the Lunar New Year holiday. Regional police will likely increase patrols, deploy additional personnel, and coordinate with malls, banks, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment venues to boost security in major cities.