18 Jun 2024 | 03:35 AM UTC
Gulf of Mexico: Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 tracking northward in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico as of late June 17
PTC1 tracking northward in the Gulf of Mexico late June 17. Landfall forecast over Tamaulipas State, Mexico, early June 20.
A low-pressure system with the potential for cyclonic development named Potential Tropical Cyclone 1 is tracking northward in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late June 17. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 595 km (370 miles) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico.
Forecast models indicate that the system will intensify but remain at tropical storm strength as it turns to track westward through the evening of June 18. The storm is likely to continue westward and make landfall as a tropical storm over Tamaulipas State, Mexico, early June 20 before dissipating over far southeastern Nuevo Leon State the evening of June 20. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.
Officials have issued the following coastal warnings and watches due to the storm system:
Tropical Storm Watch: Texas coast from Port O'Connor southward to the mouth of the Rio Grande and the northeastern coast of Mexico south of the mouth of the Rio Grande to Puerto de Altamira.
Authorities will likely issue new warnings throughout the system's progression in the coming days.
The system is forecast to produce rainfall totals of 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches), with localized higher amounts of up to 38 cm (15 inches), across northeast Mexico into South Texas. Flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding are likely. Landslides are possible in areas of higher terrain across northeastern Mexico.
Storm surge is possible along parts of the coast and could reach 0.6-1.2 meters (2-4 feet) from Sargent to Sabine Pass in Texas and Galveston Bay and 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) from the mouth of the Rio Grande to Sargent in Texas, and from Sabine Pass, Texas to the Vermilion-Cameron parish line, Louisiana.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
